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Sorghum (white) in Nieneta

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

212–292

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

198–317

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 212 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 198 and 317 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Nieneta: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 212 and 292 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 198 and 317 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 243–282 266 227–296 326 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 231–285 264 210–317 322 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 212–292 257 175–322 317 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 204–301 250 180–361 299 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 198–317 253 148–405 307 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026281
Aug 2026269
Jul 2026265
Jun 2026269
May 2026267
Apr 2026243
Mar 2026253
Feb 2026230
Jan 2026263
Dec 2025251
Nov 2025264
Oct 2025269
Sept 2025267
Aug 2025271
Jul 2025302
Jun 2025311
May 2025314
Apr 2025324
Mar 2025327
Feb 2025317
Jan 2025303
Dec 2024263
Nov 2024305
Oct 2024321
Sept 2024333
Aug 2024338
Jul 2024329
Jun 2024271
May 2024269
Apr 2024266
Mar 2024266
Feb 2024272
Jan 2024270
Dec 2023267
Nov 2023268
Oct 2023269
Sept 2023270
Aug 2023274
Jul 2023270
Jun 2023268
May 2023269
Apr 2023272
Mar 2023269
Feb 2023270
Jan 2023273
Dec 2022279
Nov 2022323
Oct 2022338
Sept 2022349
Aug 2022346
Jul 2022332
Jun 2022323
May 2022324
Apr 2022323
Mar 2022290
Feb 2022252
Jan 2022232
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021212
Sept 2021206
Aug 2021202
Jul 2021187
Jun 2021177
May 2021177
Apr 2021184
Mar 2021156
Feb 2021170
Jan 2021159
Dec 2020174
Nov 2020179
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020179
Aug 2020184
Jul 2020165
Jun 2020158
May 2020158
Apr 2020158
Mar 2020148
Feb 2020158
Jan 2020155
Dec 2019144
Nov 2019157
Oct 2019157
Sept 2019157
Aug 2019157
Jul 2019157
Jun 2019170
May 2019183
Apr 2019183
Mar 2019183
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019192
Dec 2018192
Nov 2018213
Oct 2018213
Sept 2018213
Aug 2018212
Jul 2018209
Jun 2018209
May 2018209
Apr 2018209
Mar 2018209
Feb 2018209
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017184
Nov 2017184
Oct 2017197
Sept 2017210
Aug 2017197
Jul 2017183
Jun 2017184
May 2017184
Apr 2017173
Mar 2017164
Feb 2017157
Jan 2017157
Dec 2016157
Nov 2016157
Oct 2016157
Sept 2016157
Aug 2016157
Jul 2016159
Jun 2016157
May 2016157
Apr 2016157
Mar 2016157
Feb 2016157
Jan 2016157
Dec 2015157
Nov 2015157
Oct 2015165
Sept 2015158
Aug 2015166
Jul 2015171
Jun 2015171
May 2015158

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1806-135-retail-kg.