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Rice (imported) in Nieneta

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

486–563

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

457–594

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 486 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 457 and 594 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Nieneta: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 486 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 457 and 594 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 503–545 521 480–589 586 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 496–553 522 460–631 590 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 486–563 521 452–644 593 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 480–577 519 439–698 593 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 457–594 519 372–746 595 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026520
Aug 2026520
Jul 2026520
Jun 2026520
May 2026519
Apr 2026520
Mar 2026550
Feb 2026533
Jan 2026533
Dec 2025533
Nov 2025535
Oct 2025535
Sept 2025535
Aug 2025615
Jul 2025536
Jun 2025540
May 2025540
Apr 2025553
Mar 2025567
Feb 2025565
Jan 2025557
Dec 2024580
Nov 2024580
Oct 2024578
Sept 2024563
Aug 2024560
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024520
May 2024520
Apr 2024498
Mar 2024490
Feb 2024490
Jan 2024490
Dec 2023490
Nov 2023490
Oct 2023490
Sept 2023486
Aug 2023485
Jul 2023485
Jun 2023485
May 2023475
Apr 2023480
Mar 2023480
Feb 2023430
Jan 2023440
Dec 2022430
Nov 2022430
Oct 2022430
Sept 2022430
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022430
Jun 2022460
May 2022460
Apr 2022448
Mar 2022460
Feb 2022460
Jan 2022428
Dec 2021423
Nov 2021420
Oct 2021420
Sept 2021416
Aug 2021415
Jul 2021415
Jun 2021403
May 2021390
Apr 2021390
Mar 2021390
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021398
Dec 2020390
Nov 2020390
Oct 2020380
Sept 2020380
Aug 2020380
Jul 2020395
Jun 2020385
May 2020380
Apr 2020380

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1806-64-retail-kg.