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Maize (white) in Nieneta

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

128–185

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

124–194

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 185 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Nieneta: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 185 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 157–181 169 143–183 263 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 144–182 168 120–184 243 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 128–185 161 79.1–210 226 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 122–190 161 74–217 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 124–194 161 80–228 230 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026174
Aug 2026167
Jul 2026170
Jun 2026168
May 2026169
Apr 2026168
Mar 2026168
Feb 2026168
Jan 2026169
Dec 2025169
Nov 2025181
Oct 2025188
Sept 2025197
Aug 2025222
Jul 2025248
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025251
Mar 2025251
Feb 2025253
Jan 2025236
Dec 2024221
Nov 2024227
Oct 2024287
Sept 2024309
Aug 2024279
Jul 2024271
Jun 2024242
May 2024222
Apr 2024222
Mar 2024218
Feb 2024198
Jan 2024197
Dec 2023197
Nov 2023209
Oct 2023221
Sept 2023223
Aug 2023223
Jul 2023222
Jun 2023223
May 2023230
Apr 2023228
Mar 2023229
Feb 2023229
Jan 2023228
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022226
Oct 2022259
Sept 2022286
Aug 2022284
Jul 2022285
Jun 2022297
May 2022299
Apr 2022278
Mar 2022246
Feb 2022222
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021227
Nov 2021212
Oct 2021212
Sept 2021222
Aug 2021222
Jul 2021222
Jun 2021219
May 2021208
Apr 2021190
Mar 2021181
Feb 2021157
Jan 2021165
Dec 2020153
Nov 2020153
Oct 2020163
Sept 2020167
Aug 2020167
Jul 2020158
Jun 2020140
May 2020136
Apr 2020136
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020124
Dec 2019126
Nov 2019124
Oct 2019124
Sept 2019132
Aug 2019139
Jul 2019140
Jun 2019139
May 2019139
Apr 2019139
Mar 2019139
Feb 2019139
Jan 2019138
Dec 2018138
Nov 2018138
Oct 2018145
Sept 2018178
Aug 2018179
Jul 2018179
Jun 2018180
May 2018177
Apr 2018170
Mar 2018167
Feb 2018160
Jan 2018154
Dec 2017154
Nov 2017139
Oct 2017147
Sept 2017167
Aug 2017167
Jul 2017154
Jun 2017154
May 2017154
Apr 2017154
Mar 2017143
Feb 2017139
Jan 2017139
Dec 2016139
Nov 2016139
Oct 2016149
Sept 2016167
Aug 2016167
Jul 2016169
Jun 2016167
May 2016167
Apr 2016154
Mar 2016143
Feb 2016139
Jan 2016139
Dec 2015139
Nov 2015139
Oct 2015157
Sept 2015154
Aug 2015161
Jul 2015162
Jun 2015155
May 2015146

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1806-67-retail-kg.