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Rice (local) in Nieneta

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

379–470

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

348–511

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 379 and 470 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 348 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Nieneta: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 379 and 470 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 348 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 740); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 411–452 429 381–493 506 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 396–462 429 342–539 497 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 379–470 427 321–540 488 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 371–483 425 307–576 490 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 348–511 429 239–740 480 –
Price history (76 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026444
Aug 2026428
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026425
May 2026439
Apr 2026428
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026448
Jan 2026392
Dec 2025433
Nov 2025405
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025444
Aug 2025421
Jul 2025449
Jun 2025444
May 2025440
Apr 2025455
Mar 2025464
Feb 2025458
Jan 2025493
Dec 2024481
Nov 2024489
Oct 2024521
Sept 2024508
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024461
Jun 2024430
May 2024438
Apr 2024431
Mar 2024425
Feb 2024406
Jan 2024389
Dec 2023402
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023399
Aug 2023396
Jul 2023385
Jun 2023383
May 2023375
Apr 2023415
Mar 2023415
Feb 2023411
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022410
Oct 2022420
Sept 2022404
Aug 2022392
Jul 2022415
Jun 2022419
May 2022400
Apr 2022380
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022363
Jan 2022350
Dec 2021350
Nov 2021350
Oct 2021350
Sept 2021359
Aug 2021368
Jul 2021368
Jun 2021316
May 2021316
Apr 2021316
Mar 2021318
Feb 2021314
Jan 2021314
Dec 2020321
Nov 2020321
Oct 2020334
Jul 2020307
Jun 2020301
May 2020294
Apr 2020294

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1806-71-retail-kg.