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Food basket in Nieneta

HAUTS-BASSINS, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,504–4,952

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,205–5,170

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,173 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,504 and 4,952 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,205 and 5,170 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nieneta: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,173 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,504 and 4,952 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,205 and 5,170 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,961–4,572 4,201 3,808–4,747
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,798–4,778 4,228 3,514–5,148
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,504–4,952 4,165 3,076–5,546
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,275–5,205 4,124 2,722–6,744
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,205–5,170 4,199 2,435–6,564
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,382
Aug 20264,173
Jul 20264,149
Jun 20264,180
May 20264,129
Apr 20264,187
Mar 20264,129
Feb 20264,138
Jan 20264,236
Dec 20254,211
Nov 20254,240
Oct 20254,889
Sept 20254,988
Aug 20255,079
Jul 20255,360
Jun 20255,513
May 20255,734
Apr 20255,854
Mar 20255,798
Feb 20255,568
Jan 20255,614
Dec 20245,573
Nov 20245,949
Oct 20246,124
Sept 20246,503
Aug 20246,396
Jul 20246,068
Jun 20245,138
May 20245,002
Apr 20244,970
Mar 20244,932
Feb 20244,727
Jan 20244,605
Dec 20234,594
Nov 20234,658
Oct 20234,670
Sept 20234,726
Aug 20234,743
Jul 20234,717
Jun 20234,763
May 20234,785
Apr 20235,030
Mar 20235,128
Feb 20235,119
Jan 20235,080
Dec 20225,192
Nov 20225,797
Oct 20226,223
Sept 20226,322
Aug 20226,237
Jul 20225,899
Jun 20225,758
May 20225,764
Apr 20225,872
Mar 20225,283
Feb 20224,950
Jan 20224,399
Dec 20214,378
Nov 20214,300
Oct 20213,845
Sept 20214,095
Aug 20213,925
Jul 20213,850
Jun 20213,835
May 20213,800
Apr 20213,786
Mar 20213,657
Feb 20213,433
Jan 20213,395
Dec 20203,410
Nov 20203,611
Oct 20203,647
Sept 20203,623
Aug 20203,611
Jul 20203,338
Jun 20203,388
May 20203,002
Apr 20203,002
Mar 20203,002
Feb 20202,995
Jan 20202,873
Dec 20192,825
Nov 20192,877
Oct 20193,053
Sept 20192,908
Aug 20192,944
Jul 20192,998
Jun 20193,059
May 20193,314
Apr 20193,314
Mar 20193,314
Feb 20193,314
Jan 20193,238
Dec 20183,238
Nov 20183,381
Oct 20183,578
Sept 20184,090
Aug 20184,082
Jul 20184,135
Jun 20184,076
May 20184,003
Apr 20183,751
Mar 20183,751
Feb 20183,751
Jan 20183,662
Dec 20173,650
Nov 20173,851
Oct 20173,944
Sept 20173,997
Aug 20174,036
Jul 20173,700
Jun 20173,652
May 20173,484
Apr 20173,364
Mar 20173,244
Feb 20173,076
Jan 20172,891
Dec 20162,879
Nov 20163,262
Oct 20163,236
Sept 20163,148
Aug 20163,008
Jun 20163,008
May 20163,068
Apr 20162,972
Mar 20162,956
Feb 20162,944
Jan 20162,897
Dec 20152,897
Nov 20152,861
Oct 20153,019
Sept 20153,115
Aug 20153,074
Jul 20153,041
Jun 20153,041
May 20152,927

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508