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Sorghum (white) in Dedougou

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

210–297

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

200–319

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 210 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 200 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Dedougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 210 and 297 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 200 and 319 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 239–282 265 221–296 329 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 220–291 264 204–319 329 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 210–297 261 192–337 310 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 198–306 257 171–392 297 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 200–319 257 148–423 303 –
Price history (169 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026251
Aug 2026268
Jul 2026269
Jun 2026266
May 2026269
Apr 2026267
Mar 2026281
Feb 2026279
Jan 2026272
Dec 2025269
Nov 2025264
Oct 2025254
Sept 2025267
Aug 2025277
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025290
May 2025302
Apr 2025301
Mar 2025297
Feb 2025286
Jan 2025285
Dec 2024288
Nov 2024305
Oct 2024339
Sept 2024333
Aug 2024334
Jul 2024328
Jun 2024256
May 2024294
Apr 2024285
Mar 2024256
Feb 2024251
Jan 2024266
Dec 2023249
Nov 2023266
Oct 2023278
Sept 2023258
Aug 2023266
Jul 2023326
Jun 2023236
May 2023237
Apr 2023264
Mar 2023262
Feb 2023260
Jan 2023258
Dec 2022289
Nov 2022319
Oct 2022308
Sept 2022332
Aug 2022341
Jul 2022343
Jun 2022336
May 2022327
Apr 2022326
Mar 2022254
Feb 2022224
Jan 2022218
Dec 2021210
Nov 2021193
Oct 2021196
Sept 2021198
Aug 2021194
Jul 2021191
Jun 2021187
May 2021176
Apr 2021170
Mar 2021167
Feb 2021160
Jan 2021154
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020159
Oct 2020174
Sept 2020176
Aug 2020168
Jul 2020144
Jun 2020138
May 2020138
Apr 2020138
Mar 2020140
Feb 2020139
Jan 2020137
Dec 2019134
Nov 2019131
Oct 2019131
Sept 2019122
Aug 2019133
Jul 2019143
Jun 2019159
May 2019162
Apr 2019164
Mar 2019168
Feb 2019145
Jan 2019147
Dec 2018147
Nov 2018183
Oct 2018205
Sept 2018218
Aug 2018219
Jul 2018219
Jun 2018206
May 2018211
Apr 2018185
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018179
Jan 2018169
Dec 2017157
Nov 2017168
Oct 2017177
Sept 2017196
Aug 2017192
Jul 2017172
Jun 2017176
May 2017177
Apr 2017173
Mar 2017162
Feb 2017152
Jan 2017158
Dec 2016144
Nov 2016145
Oct 2016182
Sept 2016158
Aug 2016156
Jul 2016158
Jun 2016158
May 2016153
Apr 2016132
Mar 2016132
Feb 2016131
Jan 2016130
Dec 2015151
Nov 2015154
Oct 2015156
Sept 2015158
Aug 2015162
Jul 2015162
Jun 2015162
May 2015166
Apr 2015132
Mar 2015132
Feb 2015132
Jan 2015139
Dec 2014132
Nov 2014118
Oct 2014154
Sept 2014151
Aug 2014144
Jul 2014145
Jun 2014145
May 2014141
Apr 2014138
Mar 2014135
Feb 2014133
Jan 2014133
Dec 2013123
Nov 2013130
Oct 2013136
Sept 2013140
Aug 2013130
Jul 2013130
Jun 2013130
May 2013142
Apr 2013149
Mar 2013145
Feb 2013147
Jan 2013152
Dec 2012136
Nov 2012156
Oct 2012152
Sept 2012201

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1892-135-retail-kg.