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Rice (local) in Dedougou

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

400–479

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

389–510

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 400 and 479 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 510 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dedougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 400 and 479 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 510 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 423–460 430 397–495 521 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 416–471 431 377–520 544 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 400–479 431 343–533 540 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 393–489 431 340–572 532 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 389–510 436 336–647 536 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026429
Aug 2026430
Jul 2026429
Jun 2026443
May 2026445
Apr 2026478
Mar 2026481
Feb 2026484
Jan 2026485
Dec 2025480
Nov 2025484
Oct 2025484
Sept 2025488
Aug 2025490
Jul 2025478
Jun 2025478
May 2025495
Apr 2025476
Mar 2025477
Feb 2025485
Jan 2025475
Dec 2024476
Nov 2024496
Oct 2024538
Sept 2024469
Aug 2024428
Jul 2024436
Jun 2024439
May 2024430
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024370
Feb 2024400
Jan 2024400
Dec 2023400
Nov 2023398
Oct 2023372
Sept 2023386
Aug 2023378
Jul 2023376
Jun 2023381
May 2023405
Apr 2023401
Mar 2023423
Feb 2023424
Jan 2023424
Dec 2022388
Nov 2022406
Oct 2022419
Sept 2022415
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022360
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022325
Dec 2021325
Nov 2021325
Oct 2021325
Sept 2021325
Aug 2021325
Jul 2021318
Jun 2021314
May 2021300
Apr 2021303
Mar 2021310
Feb 2021308
Jan 2021309
Dec 2020323
Nov 2020325
Oct 2020325
Sept 2020278
Aug 2020310
Jul 2020310
Jun 2020305
May 2020300
Apr 2020300

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1892-71-retail-kg.