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Sorghum (white) in Ouahigouya

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

255–320

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

239–339

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Ouahigouya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 320 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 271–309 297 267–329 341 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 265–312 296 234–348 336 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 255–320 288 254–366 333 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 242–328 288 207–395 325 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 239–339 288 221–414 317 –
Price history (169 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026290
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026304
Jun 2026304
May 2026308
Apr 2026304
Mar 2026304
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026304
Dec 2025304
Nov 2025294
Oct 2025274
Sept 2025274
Aug 2025282
Jul 2025284
Jun 2025304
May 2025330
Apr 2025328
Mar 2025331
Feb 2025334
Jan 2025277
Dec 2024318
Nov 2024328
Oct 2024327
Sept 2024327
Aug 2024328
Jul 2024330
Jun 2024319
May 2024282
Apr 2024267
Mar 2024268
Feb 2024253
Jan 2024252
Dec 2023265
Nov 2023272
Oct 2023279
Sept 2023276
Aug 2023268
Jul 2023273
Jun 2023274
May 2023284
Apr 2023283
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023301
Jan 2023278
Dec 2022296
Nov 2022328
Oct 2022328
Sept 2022342
Aug 2022341
Jul 2022335
Jun 2022350
May 2022344
Apr 2022339
Mar 2022309
Feb 2022249
Jan 2022237
Dec 2021237
Nov 2021241
Oct 2021208
Sept 2021206
Aug 2021204
Jul 2021202
Jun 2021195
May 2021196
Apr 2021195
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021189
Jan 2021169
Dec 2020167
Nov 2020173
Oct 2020189
Sept 2020196
Aug 2020192
Jul 2020169
Jun 2020169
May 2020156
Apr 2020156
Mar 2020156
Feb 2020157
Jan 2020157
Dec 2019156
Nov 2019156
Oct 2019164
Sept 2019165
Aug 2019167
Jul 2019165
Jun 2019171
May 2019178
Apr 2019178
Mar 2019178
Feb 2019187
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018182
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018199
Sept 2018210
Aug 2018209
Jul 2018208
Jun 2018212
May 2018210
Apr 2018221
Mar 2018206
Feb 2018223
Jan 2018202
Dec 2017206
Nov 2017202
Oct 2017218
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017208
Jul 2017197
Jun 2017195
May 2017195
Apr 2017192
Mar 2017184
Feb 2017173
Jan 2017171
Dec 2016171
Nov 2016172
Oct 2016184
Sept 2016188
Aug 2016174
Jul 2016171
Jun 2016172
May 2016173
Apr 2016173
Mar 2016168
Feb 2016166
Jan 2016168
Dec 2015172
Nov 2015170
Oct 2015177
Sept 2015187
Aug 2015183
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015183
May 2015182
Apr 2015169
Mar 2015166
Feb 2015167
Jan 2015162
Dec 2014158
Nov 2014168
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014176
Aug 2014173
Jul 2014171
Jun 2014171
May 2014171
Apr 2014165
Mar 2014164
Feb 2014169
Jan 2014170
Dec 2013161
Nov 2013178
Oct 2013172
Sept 2013181
Aug 2013180
Jul 2013178
Jun 2013171
May 2013172
Apr 2013178
Mar 2013171
Feb 2013180
Jan 2013174
Dec 2012181
Nov 2012201
Oct 2012216
Sept 2012234

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1893-135-retail-kg.