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Rice (imported) in Ouahigouya

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

478–567

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

440–600

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 478 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 440 and 600 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Ouahigouya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 478 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 440 and 600 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 790); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 508–545 521 469–589 576 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 497–552 521 414–639 576 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 478–567 518 392–674 573 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 470–582 520 370–704 577 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 440–600 515 321–790 572 –
Price history (76 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026520
Jul 2026513
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025550
May 2025588
Apr 2025610
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025584
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024595
Oct 2024581
Sept 2024563
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024560
May 2024550
Apr 2024544
Mar 2024458
Feb 2024450
Jan 2024438
Dec 2023450
Nov 2023435
Oct 2023425
Sept 2023431
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023438
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023425
Jan 2023425
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022419
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021300
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1893-64-retail-kg.