Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Food basket in Ouahigouya

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,237–4,909

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,031–5,389

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,237 and 4,909 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,031 and 5,389 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ouahigouya: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,772 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,237 and 4,909 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,031 and 5,389 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,607–4,418 3,892 3,423–4,907
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,402–4,688 3,880 3,034–5,173
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,237–4,909 3,861 2,394–5,747
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,069–4,958 3,830 2,257–5,811
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,031–5,389 3,912 2,252–7,647
Cost history (157 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,862
Aug 20263,772
Jul 20264,381
Jun 20264,616
May 20264,690
Apr 20264,642
Mar 20264,631
Feb 20264,572
Jan 20264,585
Dec 20254,616
Oct 20254,501
Sept 20254,562
Aug 20255,102
Jul 20255,422
Jun 20255,912
May 20255,875
Apr 20255,834
Mar 20255,931
Feb 20255,950
Jan 20255,680
Nov 20245,885
Oct 20246,442
Sept 20246,341
Aug 20246,263
Jul 20245,690
Jun 20244,818
May 20244,766
Apr 20244,586
Mar 20244,542
Feb 20244,508
Jan 20244,409
Nov 20234,153
Oct 20233,888
Sept 20234,157
Aug 20234,150
Jul 20234,060
Jun 20234,156
May 20234,166
Apr 20234,249
Mar 20234,442
Feb 20234,452
Jan 20234,384
Dec 20224,299
Oct 20225,300
Sept 20225,624
Aug 20225,636
Jul 20225,523
Jun 20225,524
May 20225,529
Apr 20225,354
Mar 20224,954
Feb 20224,180
Jan 20224,061
Oct 20213,557
Sept 20213,303
Aug 20213,274
Jul 20213,182
Jun 20213,125
May 20213,095
Apr 20213,066
Mar 20213,025
Feb 20212,958
Jan 20212,911
Nov 20203,181
Oct 20202,943
Sept 20203,233
Aug 20203,305
Jul 20202,852
Jun 20202,775
May 20202,649
Apr 20202,649
Mar 20202,640
Feb 20202,686
Jan 20202,650
Nov 20192,599
Oct 20192,806
Sept 20192,725
Aug 20192,668
Jul 20192,652
Jun 20192,719
May 20192,837
Apr 20192,857
Mar 20192,848
Feb 20192,918
Jan 20192,930
Dec 20182,930
Nov 20183,050
Oct 20183,159
Sept 20183,630
Aug 20183,710
Jul 20183,706
Jun 20183,700
May 20183,691
Apr 20183,646
Mar 20183,623
Feb 20183,656
Jan 20183,403
Nov 20173,418
Oct 20173,673
Sept 20173,743
Aug 20173,671
Jul 20173,415
Jun 20173,339
May 20173,115
Apr 20172,989
Mar 20172,980
Feb 20172,983
Jan 20173,167
Dec 20162,895
Nov 20162,859
Oct 20162,690
Sept 20162,949
Aug 20162,893
Jun 20162,918
May 20162,903
Apr 20162,878
Mar 20162,843
Feb 20162,842
Jan 20162,825
Nov 20152,848
Oct 20152,866
Sept 20152,927
Aug 20152,914
Jul 20152,942
Jun 20152,938
May 20152,886
Apr 20152,834
Mar 20152,821
Feb 20152,768
Jan 20152,562
Dec 20142,657
Nov 20142,811
Oct 20142,841
Sept 20143,064
Aug 20142,834
Jul 20142,807
Jun 20142,798
May 20142,834
Apr 20142,796
Mar 20142,833
Feb 20142,891
Jan 20142,835
Dec 20132,576
Nov 20132,868
Oct 20132,797
Sept 20132,825
Aug 20133,011
Jul 20132,962
Jun 20132,970
May 20132,940
Apr 20132,920
Mar 20132,958
Feb 20132,985
Jan 20132,836
Nov 20123,820
Oct 20123,796
Sept 20124,082

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508