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Beans (niebe) in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

303–546

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

353–626

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 303 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 353 and 626 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Nouna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 303 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 353 and 626 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 414–528 483 370–580 543 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 323–534 422 228–639 448 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 303–546 409 183–696 447 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 292–575 424 140–717 483 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 353–626 473 260–822 567 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026444
Aug 2026492
Jul 2026470
Jun 2026549
May 2026505
Apr 2026516
Mar 2026478
Feb 2026554
Jan 2026520
Dec 2025395
Nov 2025412
Oct 2025405
Sept 2025530
Aug 2025663
Jul 2025661
Jun 2025660
May 2025678
Apr 2025652
Mar 2025659
Feb 2025627
Jan 2025556
Dec 2024538
Nov 2024538
Oct 2024541
Sept 2024592
Aug 2024571
Jul 2024543
Jun 2024531
May 2024545
Apr 2024514
Mar 2024449
Feb 2024423
Jan 2024404
Dec 2023380
Nov 2023309
Oct 2023272
Sept 2023387
Aug 2023408
Jul 2023435
Jun 2023416
May 2023407
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023591
Feb 2023617
Jan 2023555
Dec 2022353
Nov 2022301
Oct 2022408
Sept 2022505
Aug 2022598
Jul 2022547
Jun 2022526
May 2022526
Apr 2022530
Mar 2022541
Feb 2022547
Jan 2022565
Dec 2021435
Nov 2021430
Oct 2021383
Sept 2021411
Aug 2021398
Jul 2021369
Jun 2021343
May 2021338
Apr 2021332
Mar 2021327
Feb 2021329
Jan 2021284
Dec 2020253
Nov 2020249
Oct 2020237
Sept 2020291
Aug 2020293
Jul 2020296
Jun 2020296
May 2020307
Apr 2020290
Mar 2020282
Feb 2020268
Jan 2020275
Dec 2019239
Nov 2019209
Oct 2019224
Sept 2019231
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019273
Jun 2019311
May 2019335
Apr 2019321
Mar 2019324
Feb 2019325
Jan 2019312
Dec 2018297
Nov 2018258
Oct 2018252
Sept 2018357
Aug 2018389
Jul 2018390
Jun 2018392
May 2018388
Apr 2018388
Mar 2018376
Feb 2018385
Jan 2018359
Dec 2017304
Nov 2017281
Oct 2017288
Sept 2017346
Aug 2017381
Jul 2017392
Jun 2017393
May 2017395
Apr 2017387
Mar 2017392
Feb 2017395
Jan 2017359
Dec 2016341
Nov 2016316
Oct 2016306
Sept 2016358
Aug 2016368
Jul 2016347
Jun 2016342
May 2016360
Apr 2016354
Mar 2016392
Feb 2016334
Jan 2016288
Dec 2015222
Nov 2015234
Oct 2015268
Sept 2015354
Aug 2015318
Jul 2015292
Jun 2015279
May 2015249
Apr 2015288
Mar 2015298
Feb 2015266

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-2595-120-retail-kg.