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Sorghum (white) in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

112–207

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

104–225

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Nouna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 146–200 175 127–220 256 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 129–204 171 117–247 240 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 112–207 158 73.2–255 213 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 105–212 152 68.3–284 206 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 104–225 158 57.7–327 215 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026182
Aug 2026180
Jul 2026147
Jun 2026154
May 2026200
Apr 2026182
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026141
Jan 2026146
Dec 2025160
Nov 2025158
Oct 2025191
Sept 2025196
Aug 2025231
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025265
May 2025266
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025270
Feb 2025272
Jan 2025266
Dec 2024197
Nov 2024247
Oct 2024296
Sept 2024290
Aug 2024290
Jul 2024250
Jun 2024237
May 2024236
Apr 2024234
Mar 2024209
Feb 2024187
Jan 2024182
Dec 2023185
Nov 2023185
Oct 2023231
Sept 2023238
Aug 2023238
Jul 2023237
Jun 2023237
May 2023233
Apr 2023209
Mar 2023226
Feb 2023232
Jan 2023218
Dec 2022205
Nov 2022233
Oct 2022263
Sept 2022282
Aug 2022289
Jul 2022280
Jun 2022264
May 2022264
Apr 2022264
Mar 2022231
Feb 2022197
Jan 2022181
Dec 2021171
Nov 2021163
Oct 2021156
Sept 2021155
Aug 2021155
Jul 2021154
Jun 2021139
May 2021129
Apr 2021127
Mar 2021127
Feb 2021121
Jan 2021105
Dec 2020106
Nov 2020106
Oct 2020103
Sept 2020127
Aug 2020131
Jul 2020117
Jun 2020103
May 202098
Apr 202086
Mar 202078
Feb 202078
Jan 202075
Dec 201978
Nov 201979
Oct 201992
Sept 201993
Aug 201991
Jul 201985
Jun 2019101
May 2019114
Apr 2019115
Mar 2019115
Feb 2019115
Jan 2019114
Dec 2018115
Nov 2018118
Oct 2018132
Sept 2018173
Aug 2018172
Jul 2018176
Jun 2018171
May 2018167
Apr 2018171
Mar 2018166
Feb 2018161
Jan 2018148
Dec 2017134
Nov 2017133
Oct 2017159
Sept 2017176
Aug 2017165
Jul 2017165
Jun 2017154
May 2017157
Apr 2017154
Mar 2017144
Feb 2017142
Jan 2017140
Dec 2016132
Nov 2016134
Oct 2016146
Sept 2016143
Aug 2016127
Jul 2016127
Jun 2016127
May 2016134
Apr 2016119
Mar 2016118
Feb 2016119
Jan 2016113
Dec 2015110
Nov 2015115
Oct 2015108
Sept 2015133
Aug 2015143
Jul 2015137
Jun 2015135
May 2015125
Apr 2015117
Mar 2015110
Feb 2015110
Jan 2015102

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-2595-135-retail-kg.