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Maize (white) in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

121–194

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

120–213

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 121 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 120 and 213 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Nouna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 121 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 120 and 213 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 142–192 171 124–198 265 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 138–199 170 123–203 252 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 121–194 156 91.7–211 218 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 116–196 155 81.2–216 218 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 120–213 163 87.5–278 236 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026177
Aug 2026177
Jul 2026137
Jun 2026143
May 2026166
Apr 2026156
Mar 2026145
Feb 2026171
Jan 2026169
Dec 2025172
Nov 2025190
Oct 2025196
Sept 2025196
Aug 2025236
Jul 2025281
Jun 2025286
May 2025287
Apr 2025283
Mar 2025276
Feb 2025278
Jan 2025286
Dec 2024218
Nov 2024246
Oct 2024297
Sept 2024277
Aug 2024277
Jul 2024257
Jun 2024256
May 2024249
Apr 2024220
Mar 2024220
Feb 2024220
Jan 2024219
Dec 2023194
Nov 2023207
Oct 2023243
Sept 2023249
Aug 2023248
Jul 2023249
Jun 2023249
May 2023249
Apr 2023252
Mar 2023272
Feb 2023265
Jan 2023234
Dec 2022231
Nov 2022241
Oct 2022261
Sept 2022286
Aug 2022280
Jul 2022299
Jun 2022310
May 2022310
Apr 2022295
Mar 2022242
Feb 2022224
Jan 2022231
Dec 2021201
Nov 2021190
Oct 2021191
Sept 2021195
Aug 2021182
Jul 2021166
Jun 2021159
May 2021153
Apr 2021147
Mar 2021143
Feb 2021135
Jan 2021119
Dec 2020110
Nov 2020110
Oct 2020125
Sept 2020137
Aug 2020137
Jul 2020132
Jun 2020111
May 2020110
Apr 2020101
Mar 202095
Feb 202096
Jan 202094
Dec 201985
Nov 2019101
Oct 2019111
Sept 2019111
Aug 2019111
Jul 2019110
Jun 2019120
May 2019125
Apr 2019121
Mar 2019121
Feb 2019123
Jan 2019121
Dec 2018124
Nov 2018102
Oct 2018151
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018176
Jul 2018186
Jun 2018185
May 2018179
Apr 2018177
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018168
Jan 2018155
Dec 2017141
Nov 2017130
Oct 2017153
Sept 2017184
Aug 2017177
Jul 2017169
Jun 2017170
May 2017170
Apr 2017166
Mar 2017161
Feb 2017160
Jan 2017161
Dec 2016156
Nov 2016137
Oct 2016163
Sept 2016157
Aug 2016154
Jul 2016154
Jun 2016158
May 2016161
Apr 2016138
Mar 2016130
Feb 2016136
Jan 2016129
Dec 2015119
Nov 2015119
Oct 2015137
Sept 2015142
Aug 2015136
Jul 2015144
Jun 2015138
May 2015123
Apr 2015119
Mar 2015113
Feb 2015111
Jan 2015117

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-2595-67-retail-kg.