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Rice (local) in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

336–402

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

323–420

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 336 and 402 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 323 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Nouna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 336 and 402 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 323 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 358–396 376 329–407 422 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 345–399 374 315–417 414 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 336–402 368 297–425 412 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 322–411 364 269–468 409 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 323–420 364 273–505 414 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026350
Aug 2026375
Jul 2026357
Jun 2026355
May 2026357
Apr 2026345
Mar 2026354
Feb 2026335
Jan 2026330
Dec 2025334
Nov 2025366
Oct 2025389
Sept 2025385
Aug 2025376
Jul 2025406
Jun 2025423
May 2025423
Apr 2025423
Mar 2025408
Feb 2025410
Jan 2025436
Dec 2024443
Nov 2024443
Oct 2024443
Sept 2024505
Aug 2024573
Jul 2024436
Jun 2024391
May 2024391
Apr 2024416
Mar 2024389
Feb 2024408
Jan 2024403
Dec 2023389
Nov 2023366
Oct 2023363
Sept 2023382
Aug 2023388
Jul 2023382
Jun 2023365
May 2023364
Apr 2023361
Mar 2023370
Feb 2023384
Jan 2023389
Dec 2022366
Nov 2022371
Oct 2022372
Sept 2022376
Aug 2022388
Jul 2022362
Jun 2022358
May 2022352
Apr 2022327
Mar 2022328
Feb 2022327
Jan 2022325
Dec 2021306
Nov 2021322
Oct 2021312
Sept 2021298
Aug 2021296
Jul 2021295
Jun 2021297
May 2021291
Apr 2021294
Mar 2021295
Feb 2021297
Jan 2021287
Dec 2020286
Nov 2020294
Oct 2020274
Sept 2020275
Aug 2020275
Jul 2020276
Jun 2020274
May 2020266
Apr 2020274
Mar 2020273
Feb 2020270
Jan 2020297
Dec 2019298
Nov 2019293
Oct 2019291
Sept 2019299
Jul 2019296
Jun 2019292
May 2019299
Apr 2019291
Mar 2019292
Feb 2019292
Jan 2019289
Dec 2018292
Nov 2018295
Oct 2018298
Sept 2018297
Aug 2018298
Jul 2018296
Jun 2018297
May 2018293
Apr 2018296
Mar 2018299
Feb 2018295
Jan 2018298
Dec 2017295
Nov 2017282
Oct 2017310
Sept 2017317
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017300
May 2017300
Apr 2017300
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017296
Jan 2017295
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016300
Oct 2016299
Sept 2016299
Aug 2016299
Jul 2016294
Jun 2016267
May 2016295
Apr 2016295
Mar 2016293
Feb 2016293
Jan 2016290
Dec 2015290
Nov 2015290
Oct 2015295
Sept 2015298
Aug 2015293
Jul 2015291
Jun 2015299
May 2015278
Apr 2015274
Mar 2015266
Feb 2015276

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-2595-71-retail-kg.