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Millet in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

172–284

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

164–302

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 164 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Nouna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 172 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 164 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 216–273 245 198–281 312 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 198–283 243 179–288 305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 172–284 232 140–296 282 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 154–294 224 94.4–364 270 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 164–302 226 127–394 279 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026262
Aug 2026246
Jul 2026232
Jun 2026190
May 2026235
Apr 2026237
Mar 2026220
Feb 2026213
Jan 2026207
Dec 2025209
Nov 2025220
Oct 2025216
Sept 2025240
Aug 2025291
Jul 2025330
Jun 2025331
May 2025328
Apr 2025333
Mar 2025329
Feb 2025328
Jan 2025308
Dec 2024262
Nov 2024322
Oct 2024344
Sept 2024339
Aug 2024340
Jul 2024282
Jun 2024262
May 2024261
Apr 2024259
Mar 2024233
Feb 2024232
Jan 2024232
Dec 2023210
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023264
Sept 2023280
Aug 2023288
Jul 2023287
Jun 2023288
May 2023285
Apr 2023281
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023275
Jan 2023254
Dec 2022255
Nov 2022283
Oct 2022309
Sept 2022316
Aug 2022313
Jul 2022318
Jun 2022318
May 2022318
Apr 2022333
Mar 2022296
Feb 2022215
Jan 2022214
Dec 2021219
Nov 2021203
Oct 2021187
Sept 2021180
Aug 2021183
Jul 2021181
Jun 2021171
May 2021171
Apr 2021168
Mar 2021158
Feb 2021158
Jan 2021158
Dec 2020160
Nov 2020160
Oct 2020178
Sept 2020172
Aug 2020159
Jul 2020159
Jun 2020160
May 2020140
Apr 2020134
Mar 2020133
Feb 2020132
Jan 2020134
Dec 2019126
Nov 2019124
Oct 2019134
Sept 2019132
Aug 2019133
Jul 2019134
Jun 2019135
May 2019139
Apr 2019139
Mar 2019142
Feb 2019140
Jan 2019142
Dec 2018137
Nov 2018143
Oct 2018162
Sept 2018197
Aug 2018198
Jul 2018203
Jun 2018206
May 2018203
Apr 2018201
Mar 2018196
Feb 2018184
Jan 2018178
Dec 2017173
Nov 2017184
Oct 2017214
Sept 2017212
Aug 2017201
Jul 2017196
Jun 2017194
May 2017182
Apr 2017169
Mar 2017153
Feb 2017151
Jan 2017149
Dec 2016146
Nov 2016145
Oct 2016166
Sept 2016157
Aug 2016156
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016157
May 2016158
Apr 2016138
Mar 2016138
Feb 2016137
Jan 2016133
Dec 2015137
Nov 2015139
Oct 2015136
Sept 2015149
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015148
May 2015144
Apr 2015144
Mar 2015137
Feb 2015137
Jan 2015134

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-2595-73-retail-kg.