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Food basket in Nouna

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,698–4,276

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,642–4,686

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,838 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,698 and 4,276 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,642 and 4,686 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Nouna: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,838 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,698 and 4,276 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,642 and 4,686 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,416–4,137 3,776 3,202–4,278
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,088–4,223 3,696 2,777–4,441
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,698–4,276 3,539 2,296–4,621
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,443–4,517 3,500 1,622–5,466
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,642–4,686 3,543 2,106–5,869
Cost history (140 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,943
Aug 20263,838
Jul 20263,630
Jun 20263,268
May 20263,729
Apr 20263,773
Mar 20263,500
Feb 20263,553
Jan 20263,420
Dec 20253,219
Nov 20253,382
Oct 20253,321
Sept 20253,834
Aug 20254,685
Jul 20255,150
Jun 20255,160
May 20255,156
Apr 20255,170
Mar 20255,134
Feb 20255,065
Jan 20254,697
Dec 20244,112
Nov 20244,832
Oct 20245,102
Sept 20245,134
Aug 20245,108
Jul 20244,361
Jun 20244,100
May 20244,113
Apr 20244,033
Mar 20243,604
Feb 20243,545
Jan 20243,511
Dec 20233,204
Nov 20233,256
Oct 20233,658
Sept 20234,057
Aug 20234,190
Jul 20234,227
Jun 20234,205
May 20234,153
Apr 20234,137
Mar 20234,664
Feb 20234,411
Jan 20234,047
Dec 20223,695
Nov 20223,938
Oct 20224,442
Sept 20224,701
Aug 20224,832
Jul 20224,801
Jun 20224,763
May 20224,763
Apr 20224,950
Mar 20224,526
Feb 20223,565
Jan 20223,585
Dec 20213,411
Nov 20213,210
Oct 20212,933
Sept 20212,900
Aug 20212,912
Jul 20212,836
Jun 20212,669
May 20212,660
Apr 20212,614
Mar 20212,485
Feb 20212,488
Jan 20212,407
Dec 20202,375
Nov 20202,368
Oct 20202,563
Sept 20202,588
Aug 20202,435
Jul 20202,441
Jun 20202,453
May 20202,233
Apr 20202,130
Mar 20202,104
Feb 20202,066
Jan 20202,103
Dec 20191,942
Nov 20191,864
Oct 20192,011
Sept 20192,000
Aug 20192,001
Jul 20192,099
Jun 20192,180
May 20192,271
Apr 20192,246
Mar 20192,287
Feb 20192,265
Jan 20192,266
Dec 20182,179
Nov 20182,180
Oct 20182,398
Sept 20183,007
Aug 20183,076
Jul 20183,138
Jun 20183,178
May 20183,134
Apr 20183,110
Mar 20183,029
Feb 20182,901
Jan 20182,782
Dec 20172,623
Nov 20172,714
Oct 20173,086
Sept 20173,167
Aug 20173,098
Jul 20173,058
Jun 20173,035
May 20172,895
Apr 20172,725
Mar 20172,542
Feb 20172,523
Jan 20172,434
Dec 20162,366
Nov 20162,309
Oct 20162,543
Sept 20162,528
Aug 20162,534
Jul 20162,497
Jun 20162,500
May 20162,544
Apr 20162,293
Mar 20162,362
Feb 20162,245
Jan 20162,114
Dec 20152,044
Nov 20152,089
Oct 20152,114
Sept 20152,425
Aug 20152,372
Jul 20152,326
Jun 20152,278
May 20152,176
Apr 20152,246
Mar 20152,180
Feb 20152,123

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508