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Beans (niebe) in Arbinda

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

521–948

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

528–1,125

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 521 and 948 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 528 and 1,125 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Arbinda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 521 and 948 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 528 and 1,125 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 629–869 747 579–1,037 1,056 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 537–887 732 387–1,092 881 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 521–948 736 335–1,259 944 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 520–1,031 734 370–1,457 1,015 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 528–1,125 753 364–1,414 1,026 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026754
Aug 2026750
Jul 2026750
Jun 2026750
May 2026754
Apr 2026756
Mar 2026754
Feb 2026750
Jan 2026754
Dec 20251,450
Nov 20251,833
Oct 20251,000
Sept 20251,005
Aug 20251,005
Jul 2025848
Jun 2025754
May 2025691
Apr 2025754
Mar 2025754
Feb 2025722
Jan 2025676
Dec 2024750
Nov 2024641
Oct 2024647
Sept 2024750
Aug 2024778
Jul 20241,000
Jun 2024750
May 2024740
Apr 2024712
Mar 2024753
Feb 2024751
Jan 2024750
Dec 2023750
Nov 2023734
Oct 2023813
Sept 20231,042
Aug 2023890
Jul 2023950
Jun 2023850
May 2023825
Apr 2023750
Mar 2023750
Feb 2023754
Jan 20231,256
Dec 2022984
Nov 2022941
Oct 2022742
Sept 2022875
Aug 2022875
Jul 2022875
Jun 2022800
May 2022626
Apr 2022503
Feb 2022402
Jan 2022427
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021397
Oct 2021374
Sept 2021340
Aug 2021364
Jul 2021361
Jun 2021369
May 2021322
Apr 2021376
Mar 2021379
Feb 2021410
Jan 2021354
Dec 2020303
Nov 2020328
Oct 2020354
Sept 2020354
Aug 2020354
Jul 2020330
Jun 2020316
May 2020328
Apr 2020328
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020358
Jan 2020403
Dec 2019389
Nov 2019303
Oct 2019283
Sept 2019310
Aug 2019309
Jul 2019311
Jun 2019302
May 2019312
Apr 2019330
Mar 2019339
Feb 2019305
Jan 2019379
Dec 2018342
Nov 2018262
Oct 2018290
Sept 2018369
Aug 2018379
Jul 2018379
Jun 2018380
May 2018379
Apr 2018383
Mar 2018374
Feb 2018383
Jan 2018358
Dec 2017328
Nov 2017290
Oct 2017273
Sept 2017445
Aug 2017461
Jul 2017456
Jun 2017449
May 2017438
Apr 2017438
Mar 2017434
Feb 2017430
Jan 2017355
Dec 2016297
Nov 2016250
Oct 2016263
Sept 2016445
Aug 2016410
Jul 2016419
Jun 2016377
May 2016335
Apr 2016303
Mar 2016321
Feb 2016342
Jan 2016340
Dec 2015328
Nov 2015266
Oct 2015257
Sept 2015384
Aug 2015318
Jul 2015318
Jun 2015328
May 2015335
Apr 2015294
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015306

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3361-120-retail-kg.