Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Sorghum (white) in Arbinda

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

323–497

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

326–538

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 323 and 497 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Arbinda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 323 and 497 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 326 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 385–459 424 339–505 559 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 347–486 420 297–603 525 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 323–497 409 268–656 502 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 320–519 409 277–677 533 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 326–538 418 277–689 565 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026400
Aug 2026429
Jul 2026429
Jun 2026429
May 2026429
Apr 2026429
Mar 2026429
Feb 2026422
Jan 2026455
Dec 2025488
Oct 2025508
Sept 2025505
Aug 2025508
Jul 2025455
Jun 2025455
May 2025426
Apr 2025556
Mar 2025455
Feb 2025417
Jan 2025451
Dec 2024442
Nov 2024505
Oct 2024506
Sept 2024457
Aug 2024457
Jun 2024508
May 2024457
Apr 2024441
Mar 2024403
Feb 2024405
Jan 2024429
Dec 2023425
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023470
Aug 2023457
Jul 2023419
Jun 2023431
May 2023425
Apr 2023404
Mar 2023379
Feb 2023380
Jan 2023508
Dec 2022442
Nov 2022417
Oct 2022424
Sept 2022377
Aug 2022379
Jul 2022379
Jun 2022366
May 2022365
Apr 2022355
Mar 2022327
Feb 2022301
Jan 2022305
Dec 2021288
Nov 2021266
Oct 2021228
Sept 2021227
Aug 2021228
Jul 2021229
Jun 2021230
May 2021207
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021203
Feb 2021235
Jan 2021201
Dec 2020199
Nov 2020183
Oct 2020190
Sept 2020184
Aug 2020177
Jul 2020177
Jun 2020176
May 2020178
Apr 2020182
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020190
Jan 2020178
Dec 2019178
Nov 2019178
Oct 2019179
Sept 2019183
Aug 2019190
Jul 2019196
Jun 2019181
May 2019178
Apr 2019177
Mar 2019177
Feb 2019178
Jan 2019178
Dec 2018180
Nov 2018152
Oct 2018171
Sept 2018226
Aug 2018226
Jul 2018229
Jun 2018228
May 2018228
Apr 2018228
Mar 2018230
Feb 2018220
Jan 2018215
Dec 2017186
Nov 2017152
Oct 2017151
Sept 2017258
Aug 2017251
Jul 2017223
Jun 2017211
May 2017205
Apr 2017202
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017196
Jan 2017187
Dec 2016142
Nov 2016135
Oct 2016164
Sept 2016211
Aug 2016212
Jul 2016212
Jun 2016212
May 2016212
Apr 2016212
Mar 2016198
Feb 2016196
Jan 2016183
Dec 2015169
Nov 2015148
Oct 2015192
Sept 2015208
Aug 2015196
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015206
May 2015196
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015184
Feb 2015179

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3361-135-retail-kg.