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Rice (imported) in Arbinda

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

414–653

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

388–723

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 414 and 653 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 388 and 723 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Arbinda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 414 and 653 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 388 and 723 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,0001,250202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 472–586 517 404–674 829 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 431–622 522 312–799 800 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 414–653 520 318–899 797 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 376–699 523 250–961 800 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 388–723 524 320–924 781 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026525
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026525
Jun 2026525
May 2026525
Apr 2026638
Mar 2026750
Feb 2026750
Jan 2026750
Dec 2025750
Oct 20251,000
Sept 20251,000
Aug 20251,000
Jul 2025750
Jun 2025656
May 2025625
Apr 2025750
Mar 2025750
Feb 2025750
Jan 2025670
Dec 2024769
Nov 2024750
Oct 2024675
Sept 2024775
Aug 2024850
Jul 2024636
Jun 2024969
May 2024710
Apr 2024625
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024630
Dec 2023663
Nov 2023738
Oct 2023688
Sept 2023917
Aug 20231,040
Jul 20231,000
Jun 20231,000
May 2023688
Apr 2023650
Mar 2023650
Feb 2023613
Jan 2023775
Dec 2022558
Nov 2022550
Oct 2022563
Sept 2022525
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022405
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021490
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021360
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021300
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020402
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020402
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019402
Oct 2019402
Sept 2019402
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019404
Apr 2019403
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019402
Dec 2018402
Nov 2018402
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018402
Jul 2018402
Jun 2018402
May 2018402
Apr 2018402
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018407
Jan 2018403
Dec 2017404
Nov 2017402
Oct 2017404
Sept 2017404
Aug 2017404
Jul 2017404
Jun 2017404
May 2017404
Apr 2017404
Mar 2017421
Feb 2017421
Jan 2017421
Dec 2016421
Nov 2016421
Oct 2016421
Sept 2016421
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015402
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015388
Mar 2015379
Feb 2015381

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3361-64-retail-kg.