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Millet in Arbinda

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

403–618

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

412–688

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 403 and 618 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 412 and 688 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Arbinda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 403 and 618 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 412 and 688 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 981); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 461–557 503 421–595 665 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 418–579 505 360–745 607 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 403–618 497 328–816 605 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 402–664 493 327–871 642 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 412–688 500 391–981 658 –
Price history (135 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026510
Aug 2026503
Jul 2026503
Jun 2026508
May 2026503
Apr 2026508
Mar 2026503
Feb 2026503
Jan 2026505
Dec 2025536
Sept 2025628
Aug 2025628
Jul 2025553
Jun 2025564
May 2025553
Apr 2025613
Mar 2025628
Feb 2025553
Jan 2025563
Dec 2024581
Nov 2024631
Oct 2024599
Sept 2024556
Aug 2024556
May 2024505
Apr 2024505
Mar 2024429
Feb 2024428
Jan 2024503
Dec 2023505
Nov 2023499
Oct 2023442
Aug 2023505
Jul 2023505
Jun 2023505
May 2023504
Apr 2023503
Mar 2023503
Feb 2023492
Jan 2023556
Dec 2022497
Nov 2022456
Oct 2022480
Sept 2022455
Aug 2022407
Jul 2022415
Jun 2022402
May 2022404
Apr 2022379
Mar 2022369
Feb 2022347
Jan 2022347
Dec 2021335
Nov 2021292
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021253
Aug 2021253
Jul 2021253
Jun 2021254
May 2021254
Apr 2021254
Mar 2021253
Feb 2021253
Jan 2021243
Dec 2020252
Nov 2020226
Oct 2020226
Sept 2020221
Aug 2020207
Jul 2020212
Jun 2020197
May 2020227
Apr 2020227
Mar 2020236
Feb 2020227
Jan 2020208
Dec 2019223
Nov 2019212
Oct 2019207
Sept 2019214
Aug 2019227
Jul 2019204
Jun 2019202
May 2019203
Apr 2019203
Mar 2019203
Feb 2019202
Jan 2019202
Dec 2018202
Nov 2018184
Oct 2018207
Sept 2018253
Aug 2018254
Jul 2018253
Jun 2018253
May 2018254
Apr 2018254
Mar 2018254
Feb 2018234
Jan 2018228
Dec 2017208
Nov 2017180
Oct 2017183
Sept 2017297
Aug 2017293
Jul 2017258
Jun 2017253
May 2017231
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017229
Feb 2017222
Jan 2017215
Dec 2016174
Nov 2016167
Oct 2016201
Sept 2016236
Aug 2016222
Jul 2016212
Jun 2016212
May 2016212
Apr 2016212
Mar 2016201
Feb 2016185
Jan 2016187
Dec 2015183
Nov 2015182
Oct 2015199
Sept 2015215
Aug 2015210
Jul 2015212
Jun 2015212
May 2015207
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015195
Feb 2015195

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3361-73-retail-kg.