Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Food basket in Arbinda

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

5,907–8,991

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,001–10,100

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,386 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 5,907 and 8,991 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,001 and 10,100 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Arbinda: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,386 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 5,907 and 8,991 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,001 and 10,100 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 13,668); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,844–8,171 7,416 6,341–8,801
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,200–8,506 7,355 5,331–10,312
Nov 2026
Next month		 5,907–8,991 7,259 4,959–11,057
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 5,916–9,843 7,287 5,014–12,809
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,001–10,100 7,365 5,518–13,668
Cost history (134 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20267,477
Aug 20267,386
Jul 20267,386
Jun 20267,446
May 20267,393
Apr 20267,457
Mar 20267,393
Feb 20267,386
Jan 20267,417
Dec 20259,042
Sept 20259,345
Aug 20259,345
Jul 20258,162
Jun 20258,125
May 20257,880
Apr 20258,713
Mar 20258,893
Feb 20257,936
Jan 20257,973
Dec 20248,322
Nov 20248,726
Oct 20248,353
Sept 20248,022
Aug 20248,072
May 20247,392
Apr 20247,342
Mar 20246,503
Feb 20246,488
Jan 20247,386
Dec 20237,410
Nov 20237,309
Oct 20236,767
Aug 20237,662
Jul 20237,770
Jun 20237,590
May 20237,533
Apr 20237,386
Mar 20237,386
Feb 20237,261
Jan 20238,933
Dec 20227,735
Nov 20227,166
Oct 20227,096
Sept 20227,035
Aug 20226,459
Jul 20226,555
Jun 20226,264
May 20225,975
Apr 20225,453
Feb 20224,888
Jan 20224,933
Dec 20214,740
Nov 20214,219
Oct 20213,709
Sept 20213,648
Aug 20213,691
Jul 20213,686
Jun 20213,712
May 20213,628
Apr 20213,725
Mar 20213,718
Feb 20213,774
Jan 20213,553
Dec 20203,569
Nov 20203,302
Oct 20203,349
Sept 20203,289
Aug 20203,121
Jul 20203,138
Jun 20202,933
May 20203,314
Apr 20203,314
Mar 20203,507
Feb 20203,368
Jan 20203,221
Dec 20193,376
Nov 20193,089
Oct 20192,993
Sept 20193,126
Aug 20193,280
Jul 20193,008
Jun 20192,968
May 20192,998
Apr 20193,030
Mar 20193,046
Feb 20192,973
Jan 20193,106
Dec 20183,040
Nov 20182,680
Oct 20183,006
Sept 20183,700
Aug 20183,730
Jul 20183,718
Jun 20183,720
May 20183,730
Apr 20183,737
Mar 20183,721
Feb 20183,497
Jan 20183,380
Dec 20173,086
Nov 20172,682
Oct 20172,687
Sept 20174,365
Aug 20174,346
Jul 20173,917
Jun 20173,844
May 20173,560
Apr 20173,488
Mar 20173,529
Feb 20173,438
Jan 20173,219
Dec 20162,623
Nov 20162,454
Oct 20162,885
Sept 20163,633
Aug 20163,402
Jul 20163,298
Jun 20163,223
May 20163,147
Apr 20163,089
Mar 20162,990
Feb 20162,836
Jan 20162,856
Dec 20152,786
Nov 20152,663
Oct 20152,851
Sept 20153,271
Aug 20153,092
Jul 20153,116
Jun 20153,134
May 20153,087
Apr 20152,929
Mar 20152,925
Feb 20152,891

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508