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Sorghum (white) in Batié

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–273

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

178–287

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 178 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Batié: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 178 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 208–255 228 193–268 333 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–264 227 172–272 335 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–273 226 151–291 334 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 183–281 226 147–318 311 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 178–287 230 134–345 301 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026194
Aug 2026228
Jul 2026231
Jun 2026245
May 2026255
Apr 2026240
Mar 2026236
Feb 2026228
Jan 2026215
Dec 2025226
Nov 2025280
Oct 2025303
Sept 2025337
Aug 2025334
Jul 2025355
Jun 2025362
May 2025357
Apr 2025402
Mar 2025376
Feb 2025349
Jan 2025336
Dec 2024331
Nov 2024349
Oct 2024392
Sept 2024315
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024284
Jun 2024344
May 2024310
Apr 2024274
Mar 2024279
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024259
Dec 2023268
Nov 2023279
Oct 2023277
Sept 2023264
Aug 2023289
Jul 2023276
Jun 2023252
May 2023317
Apr 2023341
Mar 2023340
Feb 2023344
Jan 2023316
Dec 2022308
Nov 2022350
Oct 2022301
Sept 2022288
Aug 2022275
Jul 2022296
Jun 2022264
May 2022237
Apr 2022253
Mar 2022231
Feb 2022219
Jan 2022208
Dec 2021209
Nov 2021214
Oct 2021220
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021207
Jul 2021214
Jun 2021201
May 2021203
Apr 2021204
Mar 2021210
Feb 2021207
Jan 2021198
Dec 2020202
Nov 2020205
Oct 2020204
Sept 2020199
Aug 2020170
Jul 2020163
Jun 2020164
May 2020176
Apr 2020177
Mar 2020184
Feb 2020174
Jan 2020163
Dec 2019162
Nov 2019160
Oct 2019179
Sept 2019174
Aug 2019183
Jul 2019178
Jun 2019172
May 2019180
Apr 2019183
Mar 2019184
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019167
Dec 2018176
Nov 2018208
Oct 2018204
Sept 2018208
Aug 2018220
Jul 2018204
Jun 2018217
May 2018222
Apr 2018217
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018209
Jan 2018171
Dec 2017208
Nov 2017219
Oct 2017191
Sept 2017191
Aug 2017201
Jul 2017182
Jun 2017181
May 2017192
Apr 2017221
Mar 2017209
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017158
Dec 2016165
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016173
Sept 2016201
Aug 2016197
Jul 2016198
Jun 2016193
May 2016194
Apr 2016202
Mar 2016203
Feb 2016185
Jan 2016185
Dec 2015193
Nov 2015193
Oct 2015203
Sept 2015213
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015210
Jun 2015222
May 2015204
Apr 2015185
Mar 2015189
Feb 2015191
Jan 2015186

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3362-135-retail-kg.