Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Sorghum (white) in Bogandé

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

146–230

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

144–246

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 230 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 144 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Bogandé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 146 and 230 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 144 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 182–229 203 164–242 322 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 166–231 203 143–252 302 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 146–230 188 119–260 266 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 139–238 190 96.2–271 272 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 144–246 191 109–310 274 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026208
Aug 2026203
Jul 2026194
Jun 2026219
May 2026220
Apr 2026220
Mar 2026247
Feb 2026245
Jan 2026238
Dec 2025260
Nov 2025254
Oct 2025273
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025330
Jul 2025333
Jun 2025320
May 2025343
Apr 2025316
Mar 2025354
Feb 2025328
Jan 2025316
Dec 2024343
Nov 2024391
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024376
Aug 2024373
Jul 2024430
Jun 2024402
May 2024402
Apr 2024374
Mar 2024352
Feb 2024282
Jan 2024276
Dec 2023285
Nov 2023214
Oct 2023251
Sept 2023227
Aug 2023267
Jul 2023259
Jun 2023243
May 2023243
Apr 2023246
Mar 2023247
Feb 2023221
Jan 2023193
Dec 2022169
Nov 2022188
Oct 2022290
Sept 2022342
Aug 2022398
Jul 2022398
Jun 2022384
May 2022341
Apr 2022314
Mar 2022295
Feb 2022267
Jan 2022259
Dec 2021259
Nov 2021216
Oct 2021206
Sept 2021206
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021210
Jun 2021225
May 2021186
Apr 2021181
Mar 2021165
Feb 2021161
Jan 2021161
Dec 2020164
Nov 2020159
Oct 2020172
Sept 2020228
Aug 2020199
Jul 2020185
Jun 2020184
May 2020164
Mar 2020172
Feb 2020172
Jan 2020163
Dec 2019166
Nov 2019157
Oct 2019182
Sept 2019196
Aug 2019188
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019166
May 2019152
Apr 2019205
Mar 2019189
Feb 2019173
Jan 2019173
Dec 2018168
Nov 2018190
Oct 2018243
Sept 2018261
Aug 2018269
Jul 2018259
Jun 2018266
May 2018254
Apr 2018265
Mar 2018264
Feb 2018262
Jan 2018245
Dec 2017248
Nov 2017226
Oct 2017271
Sept 2017248
Aug 2017256
Jul 2017233
Jun 2017231
May 2017221
Apr 2017213
Mar 2017214
Feb 2017212
Jan 2017190
Dec 2016162
Nov 2016173
Oct 2016185
Sept 2016212
Aug 2016231
Jul 2016221
Jun 2016226
May 2016223
Apr 2016216
Mar 2016219
Feb 2016214
Jan 2016208
Dec 2015205
Nov 2015201
Oct 2015219
Sept 2015224
Aug 2015221
Jul 2015231
Jun 2015228
May 2015224
Apr 2015219
Mar 2015211
Feb 2015206
Jan 2015185

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3363-135-retail-kg.