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Rice (local) in Bogandé

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

356–415

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

343–436

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 356 and 415 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 343 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Bogandé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 356 and 415 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 343 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 378–411 398 374–429 428 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 370–415 397 360–443 420 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 356–415 390 337–438 412 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 351–427 390 326–488 415 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 343–436 389 289–528 416 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026397
Aug 2026397
Jul 2026394
Jun 2026383
May 2026386
Apr 2026399
Mar 2026399
Feb 2026393
Jan 2026393
Dec 2025393
Nov 2025433
Oct 2025437
Sept 2025438
Aug 2025432
Jul 2025429
Jun 2025431
May 2025439
Apr 2025435
Mar 2025434
Feb 2025431
Jan 2025431
Dec 2024449
Nov 2024438
Oct 2024439
Sept 2024439
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024404
Jun 2024404
May 2024404
Apr 2024404
Mar 2024389
Feb 2024375
Jan 2024376
Dec 2023373
Nov 2023359
Oct 2023359
Sept 2023356
Aug 2023356
Jul 2023356
Jun 2023372
May 2023388
Apr 2023390
Mar 2023395
Feb 2023393
Jan 2023386
Dec 2022387
Nov 2022357
Oct 2022368
Sept 2022393
Aug 2022388
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022386
May 2022366
Apr 2022362
Mar 2022344
Feb 2022344
Jan 2022344
Dec 2021344
Nov 2021344
Oct 2021342
Sept 2021338
Aug 2021319
Jul 2021313
Jun 2021344
May 2021344
Apr 2021344
Mar 2021344
Feb 2021344
Jan 2021344
Dec 2020338
Nov 2020322
Oct 2020355
Sept 2020359
Aug 2020339
Jul 2020328
Jun 2020328
May 2020324
Mar 2020313
Feb 2020313
Jan 2020313
Dec 2019313
Nov 2019313
Oct 2019336
Sept 2019344
Aug 2019344
Jul 2019344
Jun 2019344
May 2019349
Apr 2019359
Mar 2019355
Feb 2019351
Jan 2019339
Dec 2018326
Nov 2018341
Oct 2018339
Sept 2018355
Aug 2018344
Jul 2018341
Jun 2018344
May 2018336
Apr 2018330
Mar 2018340
Feb 2018346
Jan 2018332
Dec 2017328
Nov 2017318
Oct 2017316
Sept 2017316
Aug 2017328
Jul 2017356
Jun 2017350
May 2017344
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017332
Feb 2017313
Jan 2017313
Dec 2016313
Nov 2016313
Oct 2016313
Sept 2016336
Aug 2016344
Jul 2016336
Jun 2016336
May 2016328
Apr 2016333
Mar 2016328
Feb 2016341
Jan 2016320
Dec 2015344
Nov 2015333
Oct 2015357
Sept 2015366
Aug 2015348
Jul 2015366
Jun 2015360
May 2015359
Apr 2015350
Mar 2015348
Feb 2015347
Jan 2015347

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3363-71-retail-kg.