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Food basket in Bogandé

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,440–5,724

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,324–6,103

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,871 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,440 and 5,724 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,324 and 6,103 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bogandé: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,871 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,440 and 5,724 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,324 and 6,103 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,371–5,281 4,797 3,857–5,953
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,834–5,612 4,658 3,143–6,513
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,440–5,724 4,488 2,444–7,330
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,396–5,921 4,495 2,325–8,327
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,324–6,103 4,522 2,209–8,503
Cost history (133 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,812
Aug 20264,871
Jul 20264,864
Jun 20264,552
May 20264,778
Apr 20265,030
Mar 20265,127
Feb 20265,434
Jan 20265,348
Dec 20255,132
Nov 20255,576
Oct 20255,972
Sept 20256,442
Aug 20256,943
Jul 20256,859
Jun 20256,938
May 20256,948
Apr 20257,032
Mar 20256,986
Feb 20256,908
Jan 20256,599
Dec 20246,484
Nov 20246,712
Oct 20247,006
Sept 20246,911
Aug 20246,527
Jul 20245,907
Jun 20245,593
May 20245,279
Apr 20244,937
Mar 20244,651
Feb 20244,300
Jan 20244,336
Dec 20234,352
Nov 20234,026
Oct 20233,950
Sept 20233,958
Aug 20233,950
Jul 20233,958
Jun 20233,943
May 20233,927
Apr 20233,915
Mar 20233,651
Feb 20233,632
Jan 20233,495
Dec 20223,226
Nov 20224,463
Oct 20225,144
Sept 20225,633
Aug 20225,961
Jul 20225,738
Jun 20225,297
May 20226,044
Apr 20226,347
Mar 20225,297
Feb 20224,645
Dec 20214,474
Nov 20214,078
Oct 20213,480
Sept 20213,389
Aug 20213,810
Jul 20213,896
Jun 20213,911
May 20213,151
Apr 20213,162
Mar 20212,952
Feb 20212,850
Dec 20202,731
Nov 20202,473
Oct 20202,672
Sept 20203,612
Aug 20203,329
Jul 20203,131
Jun 20203,176
May 20202,635
Mar 20202,793
Feb 20202,755
Jan 20202,753
Dec 20192,849
Nov 20192,543
Oct 20192,767
Sept 20193,138
Aug 20193,260
Jul 20193,083
Jun 20192,992
May 20192,837
Apr 20193,450
Mar 20193,224
Feb 20192,960
Dec 20182,944
Nov 20183,014
Oct 20183,459
Sept 20184,061
Aug 20184,237
Jul 20184,048
Jun 20184,310
May 20184,089
Apr 20184,112
Mar 20184,560
Feb 20184,668
Dec 20173,986
Nov 20173,780
Oct 20174,212
Sept 20174,047
Aug 20174,155
Jul 20173,835
Jun 20173,713
May 20173,666
Apr 20173,556
Mar 20173,551
Feb 20173,583
Dec 20162,952
Nov 20162,661
Oct 20162,813
Sept 20163,468
Aug 20163,744
Jul 20163,711
Jun 20163,714
May 20163,636
Apr 20163,548
Mar 20163,638
Jan 20163,519
Dec 20153,231
Nov 20153,059
Oct 20153,612
Sept 20153,828
Aug 20153,829
Jul 20153,868
Jun 20153,806
May 20153,743
Apr 20153,609
Mar 20153,585
Feb 20153,507

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508