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Rice (local) in Boromo

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

326–410

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

315–421

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 326 and 410 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 315 and 421 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Boromo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 326 and 410 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 315 and 421 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 348–402 384 337–426 406 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 340–406 382 314–438 404 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 326–410 374 284–440 407 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 315–417 373 282–467 395 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 315–421 375 275–475 404 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026381
Aug 2026385
Jul 2026388
Jun 2026374
May 2026401
Apr 2026407
Mar 2026403
Feb 2026407
Jan 2026403
Dec 2025378
Nov 2025367
Oct 2025310
Sept 2025371
Aug 2025382
Jul 2025397
Jun 2025397
May 2025397
Apr 2025406
Mar 2025410
Feb 2025411
Jan 2025401
Dec 2024397
Nov 2024476
Oct 2024452
Sept 2024433
Aug 2024394
Jul 2024381
Jun 2024381
May 2024365
Apr 2024365
Mar 2024363
Feb 2024359
Jan 2024359
Dec 2023359
Nov 2023367
Oct 2023387
Sept 2023379
Aug 2023356
Jul 2023328
Jun 2023330
May 2023389
Apr 2023359
Mar 2023359
Feb 2023359
Jan 2023359
Dec 2022360
Nov 2022344
Oct 2022373
Sept 2022357
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022342
Jun 2022342
May 2022342
Apr 2022342
Mar 2022342
Feb 2022342
Jan 2022342
Dec 2021342
Nov 2021342
Oct 2021342
Sept 2021339
Aug 2021331
Jul 2021346
Jun 2021381
May 2021357
Apr 2021302
Mar 2021305
Feb 2021341
Jan 2021341
Dec 2020278
Nov 2020312
Oct 2020296
Sept 2020296
Aug 2020296
Jul 2020274
Jun 2020282
May 2020282
Apr 2020284
Mar 2020288
Feb 2020297
Jan 2020288
Dec 2019287
Nov 2019311
Oct 2019304
Sept 2019291
Aug 2019298
Jul 2019288
Jun 2019288
May 2019281
Apr 2019274
Mar 2019280
Feb 2019282
Jan 2019293
Dec 2018312
Nov 2018308
Oct 2018321
Sept 2018330
Aug 2018325
Jul 2018318
Jun 2018319
May 2018322
Apr 2018318
Mar 2018313
Feb 2018313
Jan 2018320
Dec 2017312
Nov 2017315
Oct 2017324
Sept 2017320
Aug 2017322
Jul 2017324
Jun 2017324
May 2017324
Apr 2017324
Mar 2017324
Feb 2017324
Jan 2017316
Dec 2016324
Nov 2016319
Oct 2016322
Sept 2016331
Aug 2016327
Jul 2016329
Jun 2016329
May 2016329
Apr 2016329
Mar 2016312
Feb 2016312
Jan 2016312
Dec 2015325
Nov 2015330
Oct 2015330
Sept 2015330
Aug 2015330
Jul 2015331
Jun 2015331
May 2015331
Apr 2015331
Mar 2015328
Feb 2015321

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3364-71-retail-kg.