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Rice (local) in Boulsa

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 2% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

366–416

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

343–437

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 366 and 416 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 343 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Boulsa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 366 and 416 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 343 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 384–412 402 369–433 397 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 377–414 401 354–438 397 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 366–416 395 338–432 391 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 352–420 395 308–463 385 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 343–437 394 274–539 389 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026404
Aug 2026402
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026394
May 2026404
Apr 2026401
Mar 2026395
Feb 2026399
Jan 2026401
Dec 2025403
Nov 2025417
Oct 2025417
Sept 2025407
Aug 2025407
Jul 2025407
Jun 2025409
May 2025403
Apr 2025410
Mar 2025410
Feb 2025397
Jan 2025454
Dec 2024396
Nov 2024374
Oct 2024409
Sept 2024398
Aug 2024404
Jul 2024401
Jun 2024396
May 2024354
Apr 2024330
Mar 2024332
Feb 2024332
Jan 2024326
Dec 2023330
Nov 2023340
Oct 2023336
Sept 2023342
Aug 2023347
Jul 2023346
Jun 2023346
May 2023342
Apr 2023340
Mar 2023311
Feb 2023309
Jan 2023309
Dec 2022312
Nov 2022318
Oct 2022347
Sept 2022346
Aug 2022342
Jul 2022343
Jun 2022347
May 2022347
Apr 2022347
Mar 2022323
Feb 2022311
Jan 2022311
Dec 2021310
Nov 2021313
Oct 2021313
Sept 2021315
Aug 2021315
Jul 2021309
Jun 2021315
May 2021315
Apr 2021316
Mar 2021316
Feb 2021306
Jan 2021307
Dec 2020309
Nov 2020340
Oct 2020340
Sept 2020329
Aug 2020316
Jul 2020315
Jun 2020314
May 2020315
Apr 2020316
Mar 2020315
Feb 2020315
Jan 2020315
Dec 2019316
Nov 2019314
Oct 2019314
Sept 2019314
Aug 2019314
Jul 2019315
Jun 2019316
May 2019316
Apr 2019316
Mar 2019314
Feb 2019315
Jan 2019309
Dec 2018309
Nov 2018310
Oct 2018321
Sept 2018344
Aug 2018340
Jul 2018340
Jun 2018340
May 2018319
Apr 2018311
Mar 2018312
Feb 2018308
Jan 2018312
Dec 2017308
Nov 2017311
Oct 2017310
Sept 2017306
Aug 2017305
Jul 2017312
Jun 2017312
May 2017312
Apr 2017312
Mar 2017311
Feb 2017318
Jan 2017307
Dec 2016309
Nov 2016313
Oct 2016302
Sept 2016302
Aug 2016304
Jul 2016307
Jun 2016307
May 2016305
Apr 2016292
Mar 2016297
Feb 2016313
Jan 2016313
Dec 2015313
Nov 2015313
Oct 2015313
Sept 2015313
Aug 2015313
Jul 2015313
Jun 2015316
May 2015311
Apr 2015299
Mar 2015301
Feb 2015297

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3365-71-retail-kg.