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Sorghum (white) in Dano

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

162–219

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

146–232

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 162 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 146 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Dano: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 162 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 146 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 181–210 196 166–226 270 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 171–213 195 142–242 268 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 162–219 193 153–252 256 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 149–228 190 119–276 242 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 146–232 189 106–269 244 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026212
Aug 2026197
Jul 2026191
Jun 2026188
May 2026194
Apr 2026190
Mar 2026191
Feb 2026183
Jan 2026193
Dec 2025196
Nov 2025207
Oct 2025226
Sept 2025220
Aug 2025213
Jul 2025247
Jun 2025247
May 2025258
Apr 2025261
Mar 2025257
Feb 2025263
Jan 2025258
Dec 2024265
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024309
Sept 2024309
Aug 2024310
Jul 2024287
Jun 2024260
May 2024260
Apr 2024256
Mar 2024239
Feb 2024226
Jan 2024224
Dec 2023234
Nov 2023243
Oct 2023245
Sept 2023241
Aug 2023227
Jul 2023220
Jun 2023214
May 2023224
Apr 2023242
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023261
Jan 2023239
Dec 2022241
Nov 2022270
Oct 2022298
Sept 2022318
Aug 2022313
Jul 2022278
Jun 2022268
May 2022262
Apr 2022268
Mar 2022271
Feb 2022208
Jan 2022193
Dec 2021188
Nov 2021184
Oct 2021183
Sept 2021180
Aug 2021179
Jul 2021180
Jun 2021188
May 2021193
Apr 2021193
Mar 2021176
Feb 2021152
Jan 2021159
Dec 2020152
Nov 2020159
Oct 2020164
Sept 2020160
Aug 2020157
Jul 2020151
Jun 2020146
May 2020141
Apr 2020152
Mar 2020132
Feb 2020131
Jan 2020126
Dec 2019123
Nov 2019123
Oct 2019122
Sept 2019123
Aug 2019122
Jul 2019123
Jun 2019131
May 2019147
Apr 2019159
Mar 2019157
Feb 2019157
Jan 2019159
Dec 2018158
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018194
Sept 2018211
Aug 2018208
Jul 2018208
Jun 2018194
May 2018191
Apr 2018193
Mar 2018195
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018172
Dec 2017164
Nov 2017180
Oct 2017182
Sept 2017193
Aug 2017184
Jul 2017171
Jun 2017158
May 2017167
Apr 2017167
Mar 2017160
Feb 2017156
Jan 2017149
Dec 2016147
Nov 2016158
Oct 2016164
Sept 2016155
Aug 2016149
Jul 2016152
Jun 2016152
May 2016152
Apr 2016147
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016136
Jan 2016140
Dec 2015140
Nov 2015139
Oct 2015156
Sept 2015158
Aug 2015159
Jul 2015143
Jun 2015143
May 2015142
Apr 2015136
Mar 2015132
Feb 2015133
Jan 2015130

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3366-135-retail-kg.