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Rice (imported) in Dano

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

466–538

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

460–553

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 460 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dano: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 466 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 460 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 489–529 500 468–555 590 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 478–534 501 457–581 583 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 466–538 499 421–584 585 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 458–547 498 403–610 600 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 460–553 500 416–644 600 –
Price history (138 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025550
Nov 2025536
Oct 2025552
Sept 2025583
Aug 2025565
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025590
May 2025600
Apr 2025593
Mar 2025598
Feb 2025593
Jan 2025575
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024599
Sept 2024596
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024600
Jun 2024564
May 2024523
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Feb 2024475
Jan 2024500
Dec 2023490
Nov 2023485
Oct 2023478
Sept 2023477
Aug 2023483
Jul 2023473
Jun 2023473
May 2023470
Apr 2023472
Mar 2023485
Feb 2023488
Jan 2023505
Dec 2022482
Nov 2022455
Oct 2022462
Sept 2022470
Aug 2022475
Jul 2022468
Jun 2022473
May 2022474
Mar 2022470
Feb 2022445
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021430
Nov 2021445
Oct 2021436
Aug 2021456
Jul 2021438
Jun 2021440
May 2021436
Apr 2021453
Mar 2021455
Feb 2021435
Jan 2021455
Dec 2020436
Nov 2020438
Oct 2020408
Sept 2020413
Aug 2020383
Jul 2020435
Jun 2020435
May 2020418
Apr 2020413
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020380
Jan 2020413
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019385
Oct 2019378
Sept 2019386
Aug 2019408
Jul 2019413
Jun 2019410
May 2019423
Apr 2019390
Mar 2019404
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019415
Dec 2018436
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018393
Sept 2018386
Aug 2018350
Jul 2018350
Jun 2018350
May 2018350
Apr 2018370
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
Sept 2015350
Aug 2015350
Jul 2015350
Jun 2015350
May 2015350
Apr 2015408
Mar 2015438
Feb 2015433

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3366-64-retail-kg.