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Rice (local) in Dano

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

316–379

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

304–393

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 316 and 379 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 304 and 393 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dano: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 316 and 379 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 304 and 393 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 337–372 354 315–393 415 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 327–375 354 295–406 413 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 316–379 352 276–410 407 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 310–386 350 278–452 404 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 304–393 349 253–468 407 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026353
Aug 2026355
Jul 2026343
Jun 2026343
May 2026308
Apr 2026371
Mar 2026374
Feb 2026381
Jan 2026377
Dec 2025378
Nov 2025381
Oct 2025377
Sept 2025385
Aug 2025379
Jul 2025427
Jun 2025393
May 2025401
Apr 2025399
Mar 2025410
Feb 2025411
Jan 2025465
Dec 2024433
Nov 2024475
Oct 2024482
Sept 2024437
Aug 2024404
Jul 2024381
Jun 2024377
May 2024377
Apr 2024377
Mar 2024385
Feb 2024383
Jan 2024386
Dec 2023385
Nov 2023385
Oct 2023387
Sept 2023382
Aug 2023366
Jul 2023365
Jun 2023375
May 2023377
Apr 2023375
Mar 2023373
Feb 2023369
Jan 2023366
Dec 2022371
Nov 2022374
Oct 2022381
Sept 2022379
Aug 2022376
Jul 2022358
Jun 2022341
May 2022341
Apr 2022347
Mar 2022332
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022334
Dec 2021327
Nov 2021315
Oct 2021317
Sept 2021322
Aug 2021321
Jul 2021317
Jun 2021319
May 2021319
Apr 2021319
Mar 2021317
Feb 2021313
Jan 2021313
Dec 2020316
Nov 2020313
Oct 2020313
Sept 2020310
Aug 2020307
Jul 2020300
Jun 2020298
May 2020299
Apr 2020295
Mar 2020284
Feb 2020298
Jan 2020289
Dec 2019287
Nov 2019288
Oct 2019293
Sept 2019296
Aug 2019301
Jul 2019297
Jun 2019306
May 2019309
Apr 2019320
Mar 2019317
Feb 2019314
Jan 2019315
Dec 2018313
Nov 2018317
Oct 2018336
Sept 2018347
Aug 2018346
Jul 2018334
Jun 2018339
May 2018322
Apr 2018321
Mar 2018321
Feb 2018322
Jan 2018321
Dec 2017321
Nov 2017323
Oct 2017327
Sept 2017328
Aug 2017328
Jul 2017316
Jun 2017311
May 2017295
Apr 2017302
Mar 2017295
Feb 2017295
Jan 2017295
Dec 2016295
Nov 2016295
Oct 2016301
Sept 2016326
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016298
Jun 2016331
May 2016331
Apr 2016331
Mar 2016298
Feb 2016297
Jan 2016293
Dec 2015301
Nov 2015296
Oct 2015301
Sept 2015316
Aug 2015328
Jul 2015313
Jun 2015313
May 2015313
Apr 2015302
Mar 2015295
Feb 2015291

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3366-71-retail-kg.