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Sorghum (white) in Diapaga

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 9% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

179–465

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

172–529

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

11%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 465 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 172 and 529 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 11%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Diapaga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 465 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 172 and 529 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 11%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 301–460 402 211–522 374 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 240–467 360 126–592 366 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 179–465 298 101–688 318 11%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 172–483 293 120–782 296 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 172–529 336 67.2–806 366 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026396
Aug 2026417
Jul 2026411
Jun 2026411
May 2026408
Mar 2026409
Feb 2026292
Jan 2026253
Dec 2025321
Nov 2025315
Oct 2025357
Sept 2025351
Aug 2025348
Jul 2025380
Jun 2025356
Feb 2025896
Jan 20251,074
Nov 2024987
Oct 2024920
Mar 2024200
Feb 2024198
Jan 2024206
Dec 2023201
Nov 2023201
Oct 2023193
Sept 2023201
Aug 2023200
Jul 2023190
Jun 2023170
May 2023160
Apr 2023175
Mar 2023180
Feb 2023199
Jan 2023212
Dec 2022236
Nov 2022184
Oct 2022266
Sept 2022315
Aug 2022318
Jul 2022281
Jun 2022252
May 2022218
Apr 2022228
Mar 2022192
Feb 2022184
Jan 2022157
Dec 2021155
Nov 2021130
Oct 2021134
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021194
Jul 2021186
Jun 2021199
May 2021220
Apr 2021192
Mar 2021184
Feb 2021186
Jan 2021158
Dec 2020112
Nov 2020112
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020213
Aug 2020194
Jul 2020149
Jun 2020132
May 2020172
Apr 2020166
Mar 2020146
Feb 2020117
Jan 2020117
Dec 2019117
Nov 2019117
Oct 2019117
Sept 2019117
Aug 2019116
Jul 2019137
Jun 2019183
May 2019183
Apr 2019183
Mar 2019176
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019174
Dec 2018136
Nov 2018110
Oct 2018192
Sept 2018183
Aug 2018197
Jul 2018214
Jun 2018216
May 2018229
Apr 2018224
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018197
Jan 2018192
Dec 2017160
Nov 2017133
Oct 2017137
Sept 2017183
Aug 2017220
Jul 2017176
Jun 2017179
May 2017183
Apr 2017172
Mar 2017147
Feb 2017142
Jan 2017105
Dec 201692
Nov 2016105
Oct 2016117
Sept 2016156
Aug 2016142
Jul 2016128
Jun 2016133
May 2016128
Apr 2016147
Mar 2016147
Feb 2016140
Jan 2016122
Dec 2015128
Nov 2015122
Oct 2015142
Sept 2015192
Aug 2015176
Jul 2015183
Jun 2015156
May 2015171
Apr 2015147
Mar 2015147
Feb 2015160
Jan 2015125

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3367-135-retail-kg.