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Food basket in Diapaga

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,747–8,115

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,895–9,406

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,043 XOF in June 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since June 2026: November 2026 is 5 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,747 and 8,115 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,895 and 9,406 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Diapaga: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 7,043 XOF in June 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since June 2026: November 2026 is 5 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,747 and 8,115 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,895 and 9,406 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 13,742); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 5,812–8,144 6,987 4,918–8,738
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,362–8,005 6,153 3,617–9,415
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,747–8,115 5,459 3,183–10,279
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,755–8,608 5,734 2,764–11,339
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,895–9,406 6,035 2,853–13,742
Cost history (120 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jun 20267,043
May 20267,297
Apr 20268,162
Mar 20267,132
Feb 20266,656
Jan 20266,327
Dec 20257,862
Nov 20258,707
Oct 20259,327
Sept 20259,109
Aug 20257,327
Jul 20257,212
Jun 20257,516
Mar 20245,426
Feb 20245,272
Jan 20245,076
Dec 20234,345
Nov 20233,667
Oct 20233,692
Sept 20233,977
Aug 20233,965
Jul 20233,837
Jun 20233,578
May 20233,521
Apr 20233,849
Mar 20233,785
Feb 20233,917
Jan 20234,210
Nov 20223,170
Oct 20224,252
Sept 20225,190
Aug 20225,140
Jul 20224,921
Jun 20224,633
May 20224,431
Apr 20224,209
Mar 20223,718
Feb 20223,485
Jan 20223,165
Dec 20212,866
Nov 20212,850
Oct 20213,123
Sept 20214,104
Aug 20214,897
Jul 20214,807
Jun 20214,454
May 20214,555
Apr 20214,315
Mar 20214,481
Feb 20213,419
Jan 20212,788
Nov 20202,285
Oct 20202,433
Sept 20204,041
Aug 20203,881
Jul 20203,858
Jun 20203,682
May 20203,071
Apr 20202,910
Mar 20202,910
Feb 20202,735
Jan 20202,986
Dec 20192,475
Nov 20191,594
Oct 20191,804
Sept 20191,703
Aug 20192,253
Jul 20193,615
Jun 20194,177
May 20194,203
Apr 20193,775
Mar 20193,463
Feb 20193,463
Jan 20193,583
Dec 20182,815
Nov 20182,356
Oct 20183,847
Sept 20183,822
Aug 20184,284
Jul 20184,540
Jun 20184,550
May 20184,511
Apr 20184,316
Mar 20184,020
Feb 20183,975
Jan 20183,774
Nov 20173,313
Oct 20172,802
Sept 20173,469
Aug 20174,024
Jul 20173,728
Jun 20173,495
May 20173,463
Apr 20173,283
Mar 20173,115
Feb 20172,930
Jan 20172,357
Dec 20162,206
Nov 20161,918
Oct 20162,180
Sept 20163,088
Aug 20162,707
Jul 20162,825
Jun 20162,870
May 20162,447
Apr 20162,462
Mar 20162,639
Feb 20162,366
Jan 20162,282
Nov 20153,092
Oct 20152,514
Sept 20153,179
Aug 20153,406
Jul 20153,202
Jun 20153,235
May 20153,307
Apr 20152,995
Mar 20153,375
Feb 20153,527
Jan 20152,618

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508