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Sorghum (white) in Djibasso

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

119–201

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

121–216

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 119 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Djibasso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 119 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 154–195 178 145–208 265 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 146–198 177 138–215 263 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 119–201 160 79.8–230 223 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 110–206 159 63.4–245 220 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 121–216 166 84–272 237 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026197
Aug 2026181
Jul 2026167
Jun 2026155
May 2026157
Apr 2026157
Mar 2026162
Feb 2026167
Jan 2026169
Dec 2025188
Nov 2025163
Oct 2025211
Sept 2025208
Aug 2025234
Jul 2025262
Jun 2025263
May 2025258
Apr 2025263
Mar 2025265
Feb 2025269
Jan 2025249
Dec 2024215
Nov 2024249
Oct 2024318
Sept 2024346
Aug 2024358
Jul 2024332
Jun 2024301
May 2024265
Apr 2024249
Mar 2024236
Feb 2024241
Jan 2024236
Dec 2023223
Nov 2023210
Oct 2023227
Sept 2023237
Aug 2023243
Jul 2023237
Jun 2023235
May 2023240
Apr 2023253
Mar 2023253
Feb 2023253
Jan 2023249
Dec 2022235
Nov 2022223
Oct 2022332
Sept 2022346
Aug 2022363
Jul 2022339
Jun 2022311
May 2022311
Apr 2022311
Mar 2022275
Feb 2022242
Jan 2022203
Dec 2021169
Nov 2021169
Oct 2021169
Sept 2021167
Aug 2021165
Jul 2021157
Jun 2021146
May 2021159
Apr 2021156
Mar 2021159
Feb 2021158
Jan 2021149
Dec 2020140
Nov 2020156
Oct 2020161
Sept 2020161
Aug 2020166
Jul 2020144
Jun 2020137
May 2020136
Apr 2020137
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020132
Jan 2020117
Dec 2019111
Nov 2019116
Oct 2019131
Sept 2019131
Aug 2019128
Jul 2019121
Jun 2019116
May 2019133
Apr 2019144
Mar 2019133
Feb 2019133
Jan 2019159
Dec 2018127
Nov 2018144
Oct 2018204
Sept 2018207
Aug 2018223
Jul 2018222
Jun 2018224
May 2018215
Apr 2018214
Mar 2018213
Feb 2018201
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017171
Nov 2017166
Oct 2017176
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017180
Jul 2017170
Jun 2017171
May 2017172
Apr 2017168
Mar 2017157
Feb 2017154
Jan 2017134
Dec 2016136
Nov 2016131
Oct 2016148
Sept 2016140
Aug 2016138
Jul 2016141
Jun 2016141
May 2016141
Apr 2016137
Mar 2016130
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016128
Dec 2015118
Nov 2015122
Oct 2015136
Sept 2015138
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015152
Jun 2015144
May 2015132
Apr 2015129
Mar 2015129
Feb 2015128
Jan 2015135

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3368-135-retail-kg.