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Rice (imported) in Djibasso

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

453–535

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

441–579

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 453 and 535 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Djibasso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 453 and 535 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 579 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 820); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 480–518 500 463–547 542 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 471–526 499 456–585 545 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 453–535 493 419–588 542 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 458–545 493 453–624 552 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 441–579 492 409–820 533 –
Price history (136 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026517
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025538
May 2025550
Apr 2025563
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025521
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024580
Aug 2024588
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024508
May 2024470
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024450
Feb 2024475
Jan 2024470
Dec 2023473
Nov 2023448
Oct 2023465
Sept 2023470
Aug 2023473
Jun 2023483
May 2023470
Apr 2023470
Mar 2023463
Feb 2023513
Jan 2023497
Dec 2022518
Nov 2022463
Oct 2022470
Sept 2022464
Aug 2022445
Jul 2022443
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Mar 2022419
Feb 2022407
Jan 2022413
Dec 2021410
Nov 2021405
Oct 2021403
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021407
Jun 2021393
May 2021410
Apr 2021404
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021408
Jan 2021420
Dec 2020430
Nov 2020408
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020390
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020383
Jun 2020393
May 2020390
Apr 2020410
Mar 2020403
Feb 2020387
Jan 2020380
Dec 2019400
Sept 2019420
Aug 2019390
Jul 2019363
Jun 2019380
May 2019382
Apr 2019380
Mar 2019380
Feb 2019384
Jan 2019383
Dec 2018433
Nov 2018420
Oct 2018434
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018430
Jul 2018428
Jun 2018430
May 2018430
Apr 2018410
Mar 2018412
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018373
Dec 2017373
Nov 2017377
Oct 2017373
Sept 2017353
Aug 2017410
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017388
May 2017390
Apr 2017383
Mar 2017370
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017358
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016362
Oct 2016367
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016407
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015398
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015398
Jul 2015395
Jun 2015393
May 2015383
Apr 2015390
Mar 2015385
Feb 2015388
Jan 2015400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3368-64-retail-kg.