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Rice (local) in Djibasso

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 7% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

287–418

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

262–470

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

16%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 287 and 418 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 262 and 470 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 16%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Djibasso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 287 and 418 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 262 and 470 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 16%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 807); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 332–392 369 313–430 355 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 310–400 365 270–486 352 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 287–418 355 267–541 345 16%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 281–432 340 273–606 333 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 262–470 341 215–807 340 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026363
Aug 2026377
Jul 2026354
Jun 2026356
May 2026322
Apr 2026293
Mar 2026293
Feb 2026294
Jan 2026304
Dec 2025314
Nov 2025331
Oct 2025338
Sept 2025336
Aug 2025335
Jul 2025341
Jun 2025341
May 2025341
Apr 2025341
Mar 2025323
Feb 2025317
Jan 2025343
Dec 2024339
Nov 2024339
Oct 2024338
Sept 2024348
Aug 2024366
Jul 2024373
Jun 2024357
May 2024357
Apr 2024373
Mar 2024357
Feb 2024345
Jan 2024324
Dec 2023313
Nov 2023313
Oct 2023318
Sept 2023335
Aug 2023335
Jul 2023335
Jun 2023330
May 2023314
Apr 2023314
Mar 2023297
Feb 2023291
Jan 2023288
Dec 2022288
Nov 2022288
Oct 2022299
Sept 2022313
Aug 2022313
Jul 2022304
Jun 2022301
May 2022290
Apr 2022357
Mar 2022290
Feb 2022290
Jan 2022290
Dec 2021290
Nov 2021279
Oct 2021290
Sept 2021268
Aug 2021268
Jul 2021536
Jun 2021477
May 2021479
Apr 2021536
Mar 2021405
Feb 2021285
Jan 2021289
Dec 2020281
Nov 2020253
Oct 2020272
Sept 2020266
Aug 2020271
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020251
May 2020262
Apr 2020257
Mar 2020268
Feb 2020266
Jan 2020268
Dec 2019264
Nov 2019278
Oct 2019261
Sept 2019255
Aug 2019248
Jul 2019413
Jun 2019249
May 2019283
Apr 2019266
Mar 2019268
Feb 2019249
Jan 2019257
Dec 2018264
Nov 2018269
Oct 2018292
Sept 2018309
Aug 2018288
Jul 2018291
Jun 2018297
May 2018288
Apr 2018291
Mar 2018286
Feb 2018268
Jan 2018254
Dec 2017219
Nov 2017300
Oct 2017299
Sept 2017299
Aug 2017266
Jul 2017182
Jun 2017227
May 2017250
Apr 2017244
Mar 2017248
Feb 2017245
Jan 2017245
Dec 2016243
Nov 2016255
Oct 2016254
Sept 2016262
Aug 2016252
Jul 2016254
Jun 2016259
May 2016257
Apr 2016257
Mar 2016235
Feb 2016227
Jan 2016227
Dec 2015250
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015251
Sept 2015248
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015266
Jun 2015267
May 2015266
Apr 2015267
Mar 2015264
Feb 2015251
Jan 2015250

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3368-71-retail-kg.