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Sorghum (white) in Douna

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

141–231

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

119–238

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Douna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 231 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 160–211 185 143–238 256 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–221 184 136–277 272 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 141–231 182 102–300 272 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 119–227 171 77.7–307 218 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 119–238 172 76–324 221 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026192
Aug 2026187
Jul 2026202
Jun 2026207
May 2026207
Apr 2026207
Mar 2026183
Feb 2026191
Jan 2026190
Dec 2025134
Nov 2025186
Oct 2025211
Sept 2025207
Aug 2025243
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025263
May 2025273
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025258
Feb 2025241
Jan 2025224
Dec 2024217
Nov 2024289
Oct 2024292
Sept 2024277
Aug 2024275
Jul 2024272
Jun 2024257
May 2024240
Apr 2024215
Mar 2024199
Feb 2024197
Jan 2024164
Dec 2023184
Nov 2023208
Oct 2023200
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023200
Jul 2023224
Jun 2023217
May 2023263
Apr 2023303
Mar 2023283
Feb 2023238
Jan 2023206
Dec 2022228
Nov 2022346
Oct 2022375
Sept 2022360
Aug 2022320
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022296
May 2022325
Apr 2022263
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022191
Dec 2021189
Nov 2021211
Oct 2021214
Sept 2021215
Aug 2021218
Jul 2021203
Jun 2021215
May 2021215
Apr 2021206
Mar 2021188
Feb 2021185
Jan 2021161
Dec 2020145
Nov 2020191
Oct 2020179
Sept 2020167
Aug 2020158
Jul 2020149
Jun 2020133
May 2020158
Apr 2020140
Mar 2020139
Feb 2020107
Jan 2020127
Dec 2019132
Nov 2019136
Oct 2019164
Sept 2019138
Aug 2019158
Jul 2019152
Jun 2019148
May 2019167
Apr 2019143
Mar 2019164
Feb 2019157
Jan 2019157
Dec 2018139
Nov 2018254
Oct 2018247
Sept 2018224
Aug 2018207
Jul 2018219
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018194
Dec 2017193
Nov 2017172
Oct 2017158
Sept 2017163
Aug 2017169
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017150
May 2017150
Apr 2017131
Mar 2017138
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017100
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016119
Sept 2016100
Aug 2016103
Jul 2016125
Jun 2016122
May 2016146
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016119
Feb 2016122
Jan 2016119
Dec 2015113
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015150
Sept 2015150
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015155
May 2015155
Apr 2015144
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015107

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3369-135-retail-kg.