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Rice (local) in Douna

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

291–385

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

276–398

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 291 and 385 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 276 and 398 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Douna: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 291 and 385 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 276 and 398 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 328–370 349 315–400 401 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 309–381 348 275–433 388 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 291–385 334 255–463 371 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 273–395 325 204–460 358 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 276–398 326 215–460 363 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026325
Aug 2026348
Jul 2026355
Jun 2026348
May 2026332
Apr 2026323
Mar 2026309
Feb 2026299
Jan 2026317
Dec 2025311
Nov 2025338
Oct 2025324
Sept 2025361
Aug 2025384
Jul 2025375
Jun 2025425
May 2025425
Apr 2025425
Mar 2025406
Feb 2025413
Jan 2025450
Dec 2024430
Nov 2024395
Oct 2024447
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024463
Jul 2024428
Jun 2024419
May 2024422
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024399
Feb 2024359
Jan 2024328
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023269
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023370
Aug 2023356
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023371
May 2023395
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023384
Feb 2023343
Jan 2023350
Dec 2022349
Nov 2022373
Oct 2022375
Sept 2022380
Aug 2022376
Jul 2022351
Jun 2022373
May 2022375
Apr 2022371
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022331
Jan 2022325
Dec 2021320
Nov 2021346
Oct 2021358
Sept 2021342
Aug 2021359
Jul 2021313
Jun 2021340
May 2021343
Apr 2021340
Mar 2021318
Feb 2021334
Jan 2021300
Dec 2020285
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020309
Sept 2020309
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020284
Jun 2020304
May 2020299
Apr 2020307
Mar 2020276
Feb 2020261
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019258
Nov 2019284
Oct 2019314
Sept 2019331
Aug 2019304
Jul 2019255
Jun 2019305
May 2019306
Apr 2019276
Mar 2019306
Feb 2019300
Jan 2019267
Dec 2018286
Nov 2018317
Oct 2018363
Sept 2018350
Aug 2018340
Jul 2018350
Jun 2018363
May 2018390
Apr 2018356
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018338
Dec 2017335
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017300
Sept 2017306
Aug 2017319
Jul 2017275
Jun 2017350
May 2017325
Apr 2017306
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017263
Jan 2017250
Dec 2016248
Nov 2016261
Oct 2016285
Sept 2016291
Aug 2016267
Jul 2016273
Jun 2016279
May 2016295
Apr 2016307
Mar 2016267
Feb 2016243
Jan 2016231
Dec 2015243
Nov 2015285
Oct 2015291
Sept 2015291
Aug 2015273
Jul 2015277
Jun 2015320
May 2015325
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015275
Feb 2015263

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3369-71-retail-kg.