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Food basket in Douna

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,315–5,072

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,859–5,446

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,142 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,315 and 5,072 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,859 and 5,446 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Douna: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,142 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,315 and 5,072 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,859 and 5,446 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,260); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,797–4,609 4,146 3,389–4,921
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,567–4,823 4,123 3,108–5,484
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,315–5,072 4,034 2,633–6,204
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,232–5,282 4,056 2,516–7,047
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,859–5,446 4,003 1,868–8,260
Cost history (140 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,365
Aug 20264,142
Jul 20264,283
Jun 20264,283
May 20264,257
Apr 20264,347
Mar 20264,154
Feb 20264,045
Jan 20263,937
Dec 20254,910
Nov 20254,694
Oct 20254,972
Sept 20254,747
Aug 20255,127
Jul 20255,527
Jun 20255,770
May 20255,591
Apr 20255,919
Mar 20255,410
Feb 20255,058
Jan 20255,034
Dec 20245,783
Nov 20246,559
Oct 20245,729
Sept 20244,835
Aug 20245,050
Jul 20244,439
Jun 20244,103
May 20244,307
Apr 20244,296
Mar 20244,358
Feb 20243,604
Jan 20243,442
Dec 20234,027
Nov 20233,839
Oct 20233,665
Sept 20233,856
Aug 20234,189
Jul 20234,854
Jun 20235,276
May 20235,263
Apr 20235,443
Mar 20235,320
Feb 20234,872
Jan 20234,166
Dec 20224,807
Nov 20226,546
Oct 20226,950
Sept 20226,634
Aug 20226,485
Jul 20226,487
Jun 20226,247
May 20226,131
Apr 20225,959
Mar 20225,112
Feb 20224,337
Jan 20223,878
Dec 20213,976
Nov 20214,069
Oct 20213,989
Sept 20214,057
Aug 20214,187
Jul 20213,817
Jun 20214,324
May 20214,220
Apr 20214,140
Mar 20214,297
Feb 20213,926
Jan 20213,409
Dec 20203,478
Nov 20203,862
Oct 20204,119
Sept 20204,063
Aug 20204,034
Jul 20203,863
Jun 20203,506
May 20204,154
Apr 20203,916
Mar 20203,700
Feb 20203,749
Jan 20203,763
Dec 20193,892
Nov 20193,875
Oct 20193,886
Sept 20194,129
Aug 20193,275
Jul 20193,313
Jun 20193,896
May 20193,968
Apr 20194,032
Mar 20193,960
Feb 20193,944
Jan 20193,309
Dec 20183,781
Nov 20184,003
Oct 20184,096
Sept 20184,144
Aug 20183,980
Jul 20183,835
Jun 20184,051
May 20184,009
Apr 20183,921
Mar 20183,673
Feb 20183,673
Jan 20183,659
Dec 20174,138
Nov 20173,926
Oct 20173,689
Sept 20173,706
Aug 20173,704
Jul 20173,722
Jun 20173,706
May 20173,422
Apr 20173,380
Mar 20173,109
Feb 20172,882
Jan 20172,546
Dec 20163,200
Nov 20163,260
Oct 20163,017
Sept 20162,860
Aug 20162,849
Jul 20163,007
Jun 20163,053
May 20163,041
Apr 20163,307
Mar 20163,146
Feb 20162,911
Jan 20162,494
Dec 20152,662
Nov 20152,722
Oct 20152,756
Sept 20152,802
Aug 20152,825
Jul 20152,998
Jun 20153,218
May 20153,398
Apr 20153,050
Mar 20152,978
Feb 20152,945

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508