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Sorghum (white) in Fara

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

156–300

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

147–328

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 156 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 147 and 328 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Fara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 156 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 147 and 328 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 482); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 206–288 261 159–305 257 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 178–297 255 115–351 248 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 156–300 222 123–377 233 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 144–315 213 111–433 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 147–328 215 110–482 230 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026178
Aug 2026267
Jul 2026261
Jun 2026273
May 2026267
Apr 2026212
Mar 2026174
Feb 2026180
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025177
Nov 2025222
Oct 2025236
Sept 2025217
Aug 2025273
Jul 2025295
Jun 2025301
May 2025240
Apr 2025289
Mar 2025241
Feb 2025270
Jan 2025271
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024206
Sept 2024243
Aug 2024245
Jul 2024223
May 2024199
Apr 2024184
Mar 2024181
Feb 2024178
Jan 2024197
Dec 2023197
Nov 2023195
Oct 2023190
Sept 2023194
Aug 2023178
Jul 2023169
Jun 2023173
May 2023189
Apr 2023194
Mar 2023199
Feb 2023202
Jan 2023178
Dec 2022164
Nov 2022171
Oct 2022227
Sept 2022234
Aug 2022231
Jul 2022251
Jun 2022220
May 2022231
Apr 2022233
Mar 2022184
Feb 2022172
Jan 2022172
Dec 2021148
Nov 2021140
Oct 2021149
Sept 2021138
Aug 2021142
Jul 2021137
Jun 2021139
May 2021128
Apr 2021125
Mar 2021127
Feb 2021125
Jan 2021109
Dec 2020135
Nov 2020135
Oct 2020146
Sept 2020135
Aug 2020143
Jul 2020122
Jun 2020107
May 2020104
Mar 202094
Feb 202094
Jan 202082
Dec 201978
Nov 201989
Oct 201980
Sept 201978
Aug 201979
Jul 201988
Jun 201996
May 2019105
Apr 2019117
Mar 2019110
Feb 2019112
Jan 2019109
Dec 2018109
Nov 2018102
Oct 2018143
Sept 2018172
Aug 2018172
Jul 2018172
Jun 2018172
May 2018172
Apr 2018172
Mar 2018172
Feb 2018141
Jan 2018141
Dec 2017129
Nov 2017125
Oct 2017115
Sept 2017156
Aug 2017117
Jul 2017117
Jun 2017134
May 2017141
Apr 2017141
Mar 2017125
Feb 201798
Jan 201796
Dec 201696
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016121
Sept 2016109
Aug 2016113
Jul 2016119
Jun 2016131
May 2016128
Apr 2016117
Mar 2016111
Feb 2016107
Jan 2016102
Dec 2015105
Nov 2015109
Oct 2015109
Sept 2015117
Aug 2015125
Jul 2015128
Jun 2015121
May 2015117
Apr 2015117
Mar 2015112
Feb 2015109
Jan 2015117

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3370-135-retail-kg.