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Maize (white) in Fara

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

106–188

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

107–209

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 106 and 188 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 107 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Fara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 106 and 188 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 107 and 209 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 142–186 163 124–192 226 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 131–195 163 92.4–210 217 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 106–188 150 77.6–240 190 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 103–194 150 73.5–252 194 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 107–209 152 76.1–310 202 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026152
Aug 2026163
Jul 2026167
Jun 2026163
May 2026160
Apr 2026139
Mar 2026136
Feb 2026134
Jan 2026140
Dec 2025140
Nov 2025182
Oct 2025179
Sept 2025179
Aug 2025182
Jul 2025221
Jun 2025237
May 2025248
Apr 2025231
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025215
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024208
Nov 2024178
Oct 2024246
Sept 2024250
Aug 2024247
Jul 2024200
Jun 2024185
May 2024196
Apr 2024177
Mar 2024177
Feb 2024177
Jan 2024177
Dec 2023177
Nov 2023156
Oct 2023201
Sept 2023201
Aug 2023188
Jul 2023179
Jun 2023182
May 2023195
Apr 2023199
Mar 2023189
Feb 2023215
Jan 2023198
Dec 2022177
Nov 2022166
Oct 2022168
Sept 2022212
Aug 2022203
Jul 2022208
Jun 2022234
May 2022239
Apr 2022241
Mar 2022200
Feb 2022177
Jan 2022177
Dec 2021153
Nov 2021127
Oct 2021122
Sept 2021172
Aug 2021163
Jul 2021160
Jun 2021147
May 2021128
Apr 2021125
Mar 2021127
Feb 2021125
Jan 2021109
Dec 2020135
Nov 2020139
Oct 2020148
Sept 2020125
Aug 2020149
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020115
May 2020110
Mar 202094
Feb 202094
Jan 202082
Dec 201978
Nov 201983
Oct 201984
Sept 201978
Aug 201981
Jul 201985
Jun 201988
May 2019105
Apr 2019109
Mar 2019103
Feb 201994
Jan 201986
Dec 201886
Nov 201888
Oct 2018134
Sept 2018156
Aug 2018156
Jul 2018156
Jun 2018148
May 2018141
Apr 2018141
Mar 2018141
Feb 2018133
Jan 2018139
Dec 2017129
Nov 2017130
Oct 2017133
Sept 2017134
Aug 2017109
Jul 2017109
Jun 2017128
May 2017141
Apr 2017135
Mar 2017115
Feb 2017108
Jan 2017100
Dec 201699
Nov 201694
Oct 2016123
Sept 2016109
Aug 2016113
Jul 2016119
Jun 2016132
May 2016137
Apr 2016129
Mar 2016129
Feb 2016121
Jan 2016113
Dec 2015121
Nov 2015113
Oct 2015126
Sept 2015113
Aug 2015129
Jul 2015121
Jun 2015117
May 2015106
Apr 2015100
Mar 201596
Feb 201597
Jan 2015117

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3370-67-retail-kg.