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Rice (local) in Fara

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

285–440

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

247–511

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 440 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 247 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Fara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 440 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 247 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,005); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 324–404 367 282–441 422 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 304–427 367 242–488 439 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 285–440 364 210–538 430 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 256–460 361 164–642 410 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 247–511 362 154–1,005 411 –
Price history (75 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026375
Aug 2026367
Jul 2026367
Jun 2026323
May 2026367
Apr 2026389
Mar 2026330
Feb 2026321
Jan 2026327
Dec 2025392
Nov 2025448
Oct 2025357
Sept 2025357
Aug 2025370
Jul 2025370
Jun 2025393
May 2025512
Apr 2025408
Mar 2025481
Feb 2025435
Jan 2025521
Dec 2024417
Nov 2024467
Oct 2024483
Sept 2024348
Aug 2024354
Jul 2024333
Jun 2024323
May 2024329
Apr 2024369
Mar 2024358
Feb 2024342
Jan 2024342
Dec 2023333
Nov 2023389
Oct 2023529
Sept 2023529
Aug 2023510
Jul 2023553
Jun 2023330
May 2023331
Apr 2023308
Mar 2023336
Feb 2023299
Jan 2023302
Dec 2022314
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022302
Sept 2022325
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022318
May 2022299
Apr 2022302
Mar 2022316
Feb 2022323
Jan 2022323
Dec 2021326
Nov 2021302
Oct 2021303
Sept 2021291
Aug 2021287
Jul 2021295
Jun 2021317
May 2021313
Apr 2021319
Mar 2021326
Feb 2021313
Jan 2021313
Dec 2020313
Nov 2020313
Oct 2020317
Sept 2020333
Aug 2020333
Jul 2020333

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3370-71-retail-kg.