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Millet in Fara

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

200–345

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

176–364

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 200 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 176 and 364 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Fara: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 200 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 176 and 364 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 225–308 263 201–360 344 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 214–327 263 173–430 350 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 200–345 260 152–465 353 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 172–353 256 102–509 327 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 176–364 254 115–510 333 –
Price history (140 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026261
Aug 2026261
Jul 2026255
Jun 2026265
May 2026255
Apr 2026260
Mar 2026261
Feb 2026242
Jan 2026246
Dec 2025256
Nov 2025315
Oct 2025274
Sept 2025282
Aug 2025308
Jul 2025308
Jun 2025296
May 2025320
Apr 2025286
Mar 2025548
Feb 2025359
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024352
Nov 2024359
Oct 2024321
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024227
Jun 2024234
May 2024243
Apr 2024306
Mar 2024274
Feb 2024272
Jan 2024274
Dec 2023259
Nov 2023246
Oct 2023255
Sept 2023240
Aug 2023241
Jul 2023231
Jun 2023222
May 2023239
Apr 2023295
Mar 2023307
Feb 2023297
Jan 2023258
Dec 2022251
Nov 2022327
Oct 2022354
Sept 2022335
Aug 2022322
Jul 2022326
Jun 2022336
May 2022378
Apr 2022324
Mar 2022239
Feb 2022203
Jan 2022203
Dec 2021201
Nov 2021195
Oct 2021209
Sept 2021216
Aug 2021192
Jul 2021192
Jun 2021194
May 2021213
Apr 2021234
Mar 2021215
Feb 2021219
Jan 2021230
Dec 2020284
Nov 2020269
Oct 2020240
Sept 2020220
Aug 2020237
Jul 2020192
Jun 2020192
May 2020183
Mar 2020156
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020121
Dec 2019119
Nov 2019116
Oct 2019104
Sept 2019102
Aug 2019111
Jul 2019109
Jun 2019125
May 2019141
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019131
Feb 2019128
Jan 2019125
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018133
Oct 2018168
Sept 2018188
Aug 2018188
Jul 2018195
Jun 2018203
May 2018203
Apr 2018203
Mar 2018203
Feb 2018203
Jan 2018188
Dec 2017156
Nov 2017177
Oct 2017188
Sept 2017188
Aug 2017156
Jul 2017156
Jun 2017163
May 2017156
Apr 2017156
Mar 2017156
Feb 2017130
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016156
Oct 2016146
Sept 2016125
Aug 2016131
Jul 2016136
Jun 2016148
May 2016143
Apr 2016140
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016134
Jan 2016127
Dec 2015140
Nov 2015132
Oct 2015125
Sept 2015125
Aug 2015144
Jul 2015156
Jun 2015148
May 2015148
Apr 2015141
Mar 2015141
Feb 2015141
Jan 2015141

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3370-73-retail-kg.