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Sorghum (white) in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

274–392

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

264–411

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 274 and 392 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 264 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 274 and 392 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 264 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 310–379 357 298–399 396 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 297–386 351 288–409 379 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 274–392 336 209–440 375 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 260–400 325 258–451 356 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 264–411 325 263–482 359 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026351
Aug 2026364
Jul 2026330
Jun 2026328
May 2026321
Apr 2026332
Mar 2026318
Feb 2026327
Jan 2026329
Dec 2025291
Nov 2025314
Oct 2025341
Sept 2025329
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025333
Jun 2025348
May 2025355
Apr 2025384
Mar 2025369
Feb 2025356
Jan 2025326
Dec 2024336
Nov 2024380
Oct 2024377
Sept 2024380
Aug 2024366
Jul 2024364
Jun 2024330
May 2024325
Apr 2024321
Mar 2024325
Feb 2024313
Jan 2024297
Dec 2023294
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023305
Sept 2023314
Aug 2023330
Jul 2023317
Jun 2023305
May 2023305
Apr 2023330
Mar 2023329
Feb 2023330
Jan 2023304
Dec 2022302
Nov 2022334
Oct 2022349
Sept 2022357
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022357
Jun 2022341
May 2022340
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022307
Feb 2022242
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021229
Nov 2021233
Oct 2021218
Sept 2021231
Aug 2021227
Jul 2021226
Jun 2021237
May 2021236
Apr 2021224
Mar 2021230
Feb 2021212
Jan 2021190
Dec 2020191
Nov 2020201
Oct 2020211
Sept 2020202
Aug 2020198
Jul 2020190
Jun 2020180
May 2020173
Apr 2020155
Mar 2020153
Feb 2020147
Jan 2020146
Dec 2019146
Nov 2019147
Oct 2019148
Sept 2019163
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019183
Jun 2019180
May 2019177
Apr 2019176
Mar 2019169
Feb 2019181
Jan 2019180
Dec 2018192
Nov 2018212
Oct 2018201
Sept 2018226
Aug 2018219
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018227
May 2018234
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018216
Feb 2018210
Jan 2018205
Dec 2017193
Nov 2017202
Oct 2017221
Sept 2017244
Aug 2017228
Jul 2017197
Jun 2017189
May 2017192
Apr 2017196
Mar 2017180
Feb 2017176
Jan 2017174
Dec 2016184
Nov 2016192
Oct 2016172
Sept 2016186
Aug 2016180
Jul 2016186
Jun 2016185
May 2016181
Apr 2016177
Mar 2016170
Feb 2016173
Jan 2016183
Dec 2015180
Nov 2015187
Oct 2015186
Sept 2015189
Aug 2015195
Jul 2015192
Jun 2015188
May 2015187
Apr 2015185
Mar 2015172
Feb 2015170
Jan 2015171

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-135-retail-kg.