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Rice (imported) in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

460–524

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

444–543

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 444 and 543 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 444 and 543 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 474–518 498 465–542 532 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 464–520 497 446–565 522 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 460–524 489 446–573 522 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 458–535 488 449–616 523 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 444–543 490 403–623 523 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026520
Apr 2026518
Mar 2026524
Feb 2026510
Jan 2026510
Dec 2025520
Nov 2025516
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025535
Aug 2025523
Jul 2025548
Jun 2025514
May 2025544
Apr 2025516
Mar 2025548
Feb 2025559
Jan 2025518
Dec 2024566
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024585
Sept 2024572
Aug 2024580
Jul 2024571
Jun 2024573
May 2024550
Apr 2024483
Feb 2024586
Jan 2024482
Dec 2023439
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023438
Sept 2023469
Aug 2023368
Jul 2023469
Jun 2023467
May 2023473
Apr 2023483
Mar 2023472
Feb 2023486
Dec 2022482
Nov 2022478
Oct 2022470
Sept 2022480
Aug 2022482
Jul 2022477
Jun 2022489
May 2022486
Mar 2022470
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022464
Dec 2021457
Nov 2021455
Oct 2021460
Aug 2021448
Jul 2021452
Jun 2021449
May 2021457
Apr 2021444
Mar 2021455
Feb 2021455
Jan 2021449
Dec 2020466
Nov 2020462
Oct 2020457
Sept 2020458
Aug 2020460
Jul 2020457
Jun 2020449
May 2020449
Apr 2020458
Mar 2020451
Feb 2020456
Jan 2020457
Dec 2019455
Nov 2019457
Oct 2019456
Sept 2019455
Aug 2019463
Jul 2019453
Jun 2019461
May 2019448
Apr 2019462
Mar 2019456
Feb 2019449
Jan 2019456
Dec 2018458
Nov 2018447
Oct 2018447
Sept 2018463
Aug 2018460
Jul 2018453
Jun 2018453
May 2018463
Apr 2018447
Mar 2018457
Feb 2018462
Jan 2018462
Dec 2017456
Nov 2017440
Oct 2017462
Sept 2017459
Aug 2017460
Jul 2017453
Jun 2017449
May 2017452
Apr 2017455
Mar 2017456
Feb 2017458
Jan 2017449
Dec 2016447
Nov 2016457
Oct 2016461
Sept 2016448
Aug 2016437
Jul 2016452
Jun 2016455
May 2016448
Apr 2016449
Mar 2016458
Feb 2016446
Jan 2016462
Dec 2015454
Nov 2015457
Oct 2015462
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015453
Jul 2015441
Jun 2015448
May 2015457
Apr 2015441
Mar 2015455
Feb 2015457
Jan 2015459

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-64-retail-kg.