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Maize (white) in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

169–242

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

168–254

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 254 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 169 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 254 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–239 219 191–243 305 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 184–239 219 166–241 283 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 169–242 213 124–282 267 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 163–248 213 115–285 268 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 168–254 213 125–292 278 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026212
Aug 2026218
Jul 2026213
Jun 2026215
May 2026219
Apr 2026219
Mar 2026219
Feb 2026209
Jan 2026201
Dec 2025204
Nov 2025211
Oct 2025199
Sept 2025223
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025271
Jun 2025277
May 2025278
Apr 2025287
Mar 2025298
Feb 2025289
Jan 2025275
Dec 2024252
Nov 2024256
Oct 2024312
Sept 2024345
Aug 2024328
Jul 2024320
Jun 2024269
May 2024251
Apr 2024256
Mar 2024247
Feb 2024242
Jan 2024240
Dec 2023224
Nov 2023228
Oct 2023241
Sept 2023267
Aug 2023278
Jul 2023261
Jun 2023277
May 2023276
Apr 2023273
Mar 2023279
Feb 2023280
Jan 2023265
Dec 2022272
Nov 2022264
Oct 2022264
Sept 2022304
Aug 2022314
Jul 2022319
Jun 2022320
May 2022286
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022239
Dec 2021209
Nov 2021192
Oct 2021187
Sept 2021212
Aug 2021210
Jul 2021210
Jun 2021213
May 2021214
Apr 2021186
Mar 2021187
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021160
Dec 2020153
Nov 2020155
Oct 2020164
Sept 2020165
Aug 2020170
Jul 2020161
Jun 2020161
May 2020148
Apr 2020138
Mar 2020138
Feb 2020137
Jan 2020136
Dec 2019134
Nov 2019134
Oct 2019135
Sept 2019133
Aug 2019143
Jul 2019155
Jun 2019146
May 2019146
Apr 2019146
Mar 2019144
Feb 2019141
Jan 2019141
Dec 2018139
Nov 2018141
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018183
Aug 2018181
Jul 2018181
Jun 2018188
May 2018179
Apr 2018180
Mar 2018180
Feb 2018162
Jan 2018160
Dec 2017158
Nov 2017147
Oct 2017153
Sept 2017168
Aug 2017161
Jul 2017158
Jun 2017159
May 2017159
Apr 2017160
Mar 2017149
Feb 2017140
Jan 2017137
Dec 2016136
Nov 2016140
Oct 2016153
Sept 2016159
Aug 2016159
Jul 2016159
Jun 2016157
May 2016157
Apr 2016157
Mar 2016159
Feb 2016123
Jan 2016139
Dec 2015138
Nov 2015142
Oct 2015140
Sept 2015160
Aug 2015159
Jul 2015157
Jun 2015157
May 2015155
Apr 2015135
Mar 2015134
Feb 2015137
Jan 2015149

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-67-retail-kg.