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Rice (local) in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

364–449

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

348–469

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 364 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 348 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 364 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 348 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 382–442 421 370–460 444 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 373–445 419 358–471 449 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 364–449 410 338–489 445 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 351–456 406 320–523 428 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 348–469 408 297–586 436 –
Price history (138 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026417
Aug 2026426
Jul 2026386
Jun 2026385
May 2026381
Apr 2026417
Mar 2026415
Feb 2026401
Jan 2026381
Dec 2025375
Nov 2025394
Oct 2025410
Sept 2025406
Aug 2025418
Jul 2025439
Jun 2025419
May 2025450
Apr 2025342
Mar 2025393
Feb 2025436
Jan 2025412
Dec 2024448
Nov 2024497
Oct 2024499
Sept 2024466
Aug 2024464
Jul 2024443
Jun 2024415
May 2024406
Apr 2024406
Mar 2024394
Feb 2024399
Jan 2024395
Dec 2023382
Nov 2023403
Oct 2023408
Sept 2023389
Aug 2023382
Jul 2023386
May 2023381
Apr 2023368
Mar 2023385
Feb 2023385
Jan 2023472
Nov 2022395
Oct 2022408
Aug 2022383
Jul 2022383
Jun 2022377
May 2022363
Apr 2022362
Mar 2022354
Feb 2022348
Jan 2022356
Dec 2021371
Nov 2021355
Oct 2021355
Sept 2021355
Aug 2021348
Jul 2021353
Jun 2021350
May 2021342
Apr 2021330
Mar 2021332
Feb 2021337
Jan 2021323
Dec 2020305
Nov 2020325
Oct 2020338
Sept 2020356
Aug 2020320
Jul 2020306
Jun 2020306
May 2020322
Apr 2020324
Mar 2020310
Feb 2020309
Jan 2020305
Dec 2019311
Nov 2019308
Oct 2019300
Sept 2019300
Aug 2019303
Jul 2019306
Jun 2019305
May 2019305
Apr 2019305
Mar 2019305
Feb 2019305
Jan 2019305
Dec 2018306
Nov 2018326
Oct 2018327
Sept 2018337
Aug 2018339
Jul 2018335
Jun 2018330
May 2018330
Apr 2018331
Mar 2018335
Feb 2018313
Jan 2018305
Dec 2017308
Nov 2017311
Oct 2017306
Sept 2017311
Aug 2017311
Jul 2017311
Jun 2017311
May 2017311
Apr 2017310
Mar 2017309
Feb 2017305
Jan 2017305
Dec 2016307
Nov 2016316
Oct 2016315
Sept 2016311
Aug 2016311
Jul 2016311
Jun 2016309
May 2016305
Apr 2016305
Mar 2016305
Feb 2016306
Jan 2016316
Dec 2015311
Nov 2015314
Oct 2015326
Sept 2015327
Aug 2015313
Jul 2015311
Jun 2015293
May 2015311
Apr 2015305
Mar 2015307
Feb 2015317
Jan 2015307

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-71-retail-kg.