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Millet in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

297–471

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

252–488

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 471 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 252 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Gaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 471 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 252 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 322–427 388 301–456 443 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 307–452 387 299–480 454 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 297–471 379 291–472 443 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 266–475 373 182–499 415 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 252–488 367 155–617 408 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026353
Aug 2026390
Jul 2026349
Jun 2026350
May 2026347
Apr 2026340
Mar 2026333
Feb 2026354
Jan 2026348
Dec 2025292
Nov 2025410
Oct 2025396
Sept 2025416
Aug 2025400
Jul 2025448
Jun 2025424
May 2025437
Apr 2025441
Mar 2025442
Feb 2025451
Jan 2025413
Dec 2024448
Nov 2024460
Oct 2024508
Sept 2024470
Aug 2024451
Jul 2024395
Jun 2024392
May 2024462
Apr 2024373
Mar 2024359
Feb 2024339
Jan 2024365
Dec 2023366
Nov 2023397
Oct 2023416
Sept 2023345
Aug 2023377
Jul 2023405
Jun 2023425
May 2023390
Apr 2023404
Mar 2023408
Feb 2023422
Jan 2023419
Dec 2022394
Nov 2022469
Oct 2022458
Sept 2022426
Aug 2022429
Jul 2022389
Jun 2022393
May 2022388
Apr 2022404
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022303
Jan 2022299
Dec 2021322
Nov 2021299
Oct 2021286
Sept 2021302
Aug 2021287
Jul 2021292
Jun 2021296
May 2021335
Apr 2021305
Mar 2021262
Feb 2021280
Jan 2021235
Dec 2020282
Nov 2020281
Oct 2020297
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020260
Jul 2020243
Jun 2020243
May 2020259
Apr 2020275
Mar 2020238
Feb 2020238
Jan 2020226
Dec 2019232
Nov 2019234
Oct 2019248
Sept 2019242
Aug 2019249
Jul 2019242
Jun 2019246
May 2019247
Apr 2019270
Mar 2019272
Feb 2019256
Jan 2019255
Dec 2018268
Nov 2018259
Oct 2018302
Sept 2018312
Aug 2018309
Jul 2018313
Jun 2018300
May 2018305
Apr 2018306
Mar 2018311
Feb 2018311
Jan 2018322
Dec 2017340
Nov 2017370
Oct 2017348
Sept 2017330
Aug 2017285
Jul 2017272
Jun 2017279
May 2017275
Apr 2017278
Mar 2017280
Feb 2017280
Jan 2017263
Dec 2016251
Nov 2016265
Oct 2016264
Sept 2016266
Aug 2016261
Jul 2016252
Jun 2016264
May 2016260
Apr 2016252
Mar 2016242
Feb 2016253
Jan 2016233
Dec 2015243
Nov 2015242
Oct 2015251
Sept 2015253
Aug 2015267
Jul 2015258
Jun 2015257
May 2015266
Apr 2015220
Mar 2015209
Feb 2015205
Jan 2015217

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3373-73-retail-kg.