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Food basket in Gaoua

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,294–6,469

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,648–6,869

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,566 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,294 and 6,469 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,648 and 6,869 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gaoua: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,566 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,294 and 6,469 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,648 and 6,869 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,708–6,025 5,489 4,435–6,382
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,504–6,314 5,432 4,300–6,777
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,294–6,469 5,313 4,099–6,671
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,764–6,494 5,261 2,682–6,940
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,648–6,869 5,232 2,459–8,909
Cost history (140 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20265,111
Aug 20265,566
Jul 20264,987
Jun 20264,942
May 20265,017
Apr 20264,930
Mar 20264,806
Feb 20265,092
Jan 20264,970
Dec 20254,240
Nov 20255,692
Oct 20255,443
Sept 20255,953
Aug 20255,920
Jul 20256,578
Jun 20256,229
May 20256,502
Apr 20256,253
Mar 20256,535
Feb 20256,650
Jan 20256,133
Dec 20246,433
Nov 20246,481
Oct 20247,581
Sept 20247,211
Aug 20246,899
Jul 20246,040
Jun 20245,878
May 20246,683
Apr 20245,455
Mar 20245,302
Feb 20245,018
Jan 20245,122
Dec 20235,000
Nov 20235,374
Oct 20235,561
Sept 20234,765
Aug 20235,219
Jul 20235,530
Jun 20235,784
May 20235,409
Apr 20235,600
Mar 20235,656
Feb 20235,802
Jan 20235,775
Dec 20225,326
Nov 20226,245
Oct 20226,223
Sept 20226,111
Aug 20226,277
Jul 20225,741
Jun 20225,801
May 20225,772
Apr 20225,923
Mar 20225,332
Feb 20224,588
Jan 20224,474
Dec 20214,661
Nov 20214,344
Oct 20214,620
Sept 20214,713
Aug 20214,292
Jul 20214,341
Jun 20214,418
May 20214,843
Apr 20214,432
Mar 20213,878
Feb 20214,040
Jan 20213,430
Dec 20203,938
Nov 20203,921
Oct 20204,167
Sept 20204,228
Aug 20203,748
Jul 20203,553
Jun 20203,550
May 20203,731
Apr 20203,926
Mar 20203,450
Feb 20203,409
Jan 20203,259
Dec 20193,310
Nov 20193,303
Oct 20193,505
Sept 20193,736
Aug 20193,557
Jul 20193,480
Jun 20193,546
May 20193,562
Apr 20193,830
Mar 20193,840
Feb 20193,652
Jan 20193,643
Dec 20183,774
Nov 20183,668
Oct 20184,283
Sept 20184,525
Aug 20184,421
Jul 20184,440
Jun 20184,302
May 20184,384
Apr 20184,403
Mar 20184,454
Feb 20184,430
Jan 20184,490
Dec 20174,656
Nov 20175,000
Oct 20174,797
Sept 20174,565
Aug 20174,086
Jul 20173,917
Jun 20174,003
May 20173,950
Apr 20174,004
Mar 20174,051
Feb 20173,976
Jan 20173,692
Dec 20163,511
Nov 20163,711
Oct 20163,753
Sept 20163,802
Aug 20163,742
Jul 20163,643
Jun 20163,807
May 20163,768
Apr 20163,638
Mar 20163,467
Feb 20163,587
Jan 20163,611
Nov 20153,329
Oct 20153,588
Sept 20153,653
Aug 20153,830
Jul 20153,665
Jun 20153,638
May 20153,761
Apr 20153,164
Mar 20153,048
Feb 20152,968
Jan 20153,074

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508