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Sorghum (white) in Gayéri

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

256–460

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

238–502

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 256 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 238 and 502 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Gayéri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 256 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 238 and 502 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 723); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 316–440 400 265–462 419 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 281–462 394 212–513 415 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 256–460 364 200–557 387 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 245–484 360 197–653 382 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 238–502 354 174–723 381 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026408
Aug 2026408
Jul 2026405
Jun 2026405
May 2026403
Apr 2026401
Mar 2026319
Feb 2026317
Jan 2026317
Dec 2025339
Nov 2025423
Oct 2025408
Sept 2025408
Aug 2025408
Jul 2025403
Jun 2025421
May 2025421
Apr 2025428
Mar 2025368
Feb 2025368
Jan 2025368
Dec 2024368
Nov 2024368
Oct 2024371
Sept 2024365
Aug 2024365
Jul 2024260
Jun 2024260
May 2024260
Apr 2024261
Mar 2024263
Feb 2024263
Jan 2024263
Dec 2023263
Nov 2023263
Oct 2023263
Sept 2023254
Aug 2023221
Jul 2023211
Jun 2023191
May 2023181
Apr 2023256
Mar 2023308
Feb 2023282
Jan 2023256
Dec 2022308
Nov 2022308
Oct 2022333
Sept 2022327
Aug 2022328
Jul 2022299
Jun 2022293
May 2022256
Apr 2022244
Mar 2022234
Feb 2022232
Jan 2022195
Dec 2021185
Nov 2021195
Oct 2021183
Sept 2021171
Aug 2021171
Jul 2021179
Jun 2021183
May 2021107
Apr 2021107
Mar 2021143
Feb 2021167
Jan 2021153
Dec 2020139
Nov 2020125
Oct 2020167
Sept 2020167
Aug 2020167
Jul 2020167
Jun 2020167
May 2020167
Apr 2020167
Mar 2020160
Feb 2020148
Jan 2020139
Dec 2019139
Nov 2019167
Oct 2019167
Sept 2019167
Aug 2019163
Jul 2019144
Jun 2019128
May 2019128
Apr 2019128
Mar 2019128
Feb 2019144
Jan 2019131
Dec 2018128
Nov 2018128
Oct 2018170
Sept 2018170
Aug 2018187
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018194
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018188
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017169
Nov 2017150
Oct 2017144
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017160
Jul 2017179
Jun 2017158
May 2017150
Apr 2017144
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017120
Jan 2017113
Dec 2016117
Nov 2016103
Oct 2016125
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016148
Feb 2016138
Jan 2016134
Dec 2015138
Nov 2015121
Oct 2015138
Sept 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015150
May 2015166
Apr 2015138
Mar 2015138
Feb 2015138
Jan 2015115

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3375-135-retail-kg.