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Rice (imported) in Gayéri

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

540–633

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

511–679

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 540 and 633 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 511 and 679 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gayéri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 540 and 633 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 511 and 679 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 578–624 596 540–664 670 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 562–627 597 456–681 647 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 540–633 590 425–681 638 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 529–645 590 427–708 636 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 511–679 590 403–909 638 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026600
Aug 2026600
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026600
May 2026600
Apr 2026600
Mar 2026600
Feb 2026600
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025600
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024760
Sept 20241,000
Aug 2024680
Jul 2024600
Jun 2024600
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024600
Feb 2024600
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023545
Sept 2023617
Aug 2023351Data error
Jul 2023625
Jun 2023631
May 2023625
Apr 2023580
Mar 2023465
Feb 2023550
Jan 2023550
Dec 2022538
Nov 2022550
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022525
Aug 2022517
Jul 2022525
Jun 2022530
May 2022483
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Apr 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018451
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017408
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017450
Dec 2016450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016450
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Nov 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Jun 2015450
May 2015450
Apr 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3375-64-retail-kg.